Decay watch: 2003 February 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Feb 04 2003 - 16:05:10 EST

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    Here is a summary of the final notices on my Decay Watch page for 
    today's two decayers.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18083 = 87- 48 A = Cosmos 1849
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Feb  3 23:41     Feb  3 22:27 +-7m        48.0 S    28.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb  4 20:30     Feb  3 22:22 -90+10m     32.3 S    44.9 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1849                                      711 x 84 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03034.85769382  .99999999  12294-5  13971-2 0   398
    2 18083  61.8029 224.8485 0462929 215.5409 293.4758 15.56699164115512
    
    Note: It is possible that this disintegrated soon after perigee on
    the above orbit, though my evolution (and SCC's analysis) has it
    surviving to the vicinity of the perigee in the next orbit, given
    by the predicted elset:
    Cosmos 1849                                      466 x 82 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03034.89447191 6.26602581  38111+2  27609-2 0 90391
    2 18083  61.7844 224.7033 0288733 215.5590 142.4824 16.00268608115527
    If so, it decayed southbound over the SW Atlantic, to the SE of
    Porto Alegre, Brazil.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27682 = 03-  6 B = Progress M-47 Soyuz r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Feb  4 15:38     Feb  4 14:55 +-7m        33.0 N     0.0 E
    SatEvo     Feb  4 20:50     Feb  4 14:54 +-1d        28.2 N     7.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M-47 Soyuz r                            155 x 139 km
    1 27682U 03006B   03035.49366916  .21980138  12618-4  36681-3 0   182
    2 27682  51.6600 326.2642 0011990  83.7957 276.5061 16.47078469   323
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed soon after the end of the orbit
    following the one given by the final elset, above. My prediction
    for that rev is:
    Progress M-47 Soyuz r                            138 x 127 km
    1 27682U 03006B   03035.55419948  .60237869  38710+1  42180-3 0 90189
    2 27682  51.6586 325.9174 0008068  84.0540 276.0379 16.52689652   332
    This has it decaying northbound over the Canary Is.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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