Updated elements of USA 193

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sun Feb 17 2008 - 15:21:23 UTC

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "Updated elements of USA 186"

    I have updated the elements using the observations made last night by Ed Light
    and Mat Bartley:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2008/0288.html
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2008/0292.html
    
    I arrived at the following by using Satevo to propagate my high-drag elset of
    Feb 11 to the ascending node prior to Mat's observation, then performing a
    differential correction only on rate of decay, mean anomaly and mean motion.
    
    The result is somewhat rough, but should be more than adequate to re-acquire the
    object over the coming days. Predicted arrival times tonight are uncertain by at
    least 10 s; track errors may be considerable, perhaps one degree at high
    elevation above the horizon.
    
    Rate of altitude decrease has increased to about 1.4 km/d (kilometres per day).
    
    Using the updated elements and a 10.7 cm solar flux of 70, Satevo v0.51
    estimates decay from orbit on 2008 March 11, seven days earlier than the
    estimate posted on Feb 11. The uncertainty is at least several days.
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  4.3 v                    249 X 260 km
    1 29651U 06057A   08048.09979129  .00257471  00000-0  31999-3 0    00
    2 29651  58.4812  43.9247 0008448  75.1492 285.0544 16.07103915    05
    Arc 2008 Feb 10.21 - 17.11, WRMS residuals = 0.7 deg
    
    Definition of 2-line elements format:
    
    http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/SSOP
    _Help/tle_def.html
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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