Updated 09052C elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Feb 18 2010 - 06:40:41 UTC

  • Next message: nixj.geo@yahoo.com: "JN 9633 Feb 18 obs"

    Derek Breit, Mike McCants, and Brad Young, contributed observations used to
    determine the following element set:
    
    STSS Demo r                                              152 X 258 km
    1 35939U 09052C   10049.09871335  .06452465  00000-0  74322-3 0    01
    2 35939  59.6019 272.5869 0080555 358.8170   1.2748 16.25055528    06
    Arc 20100217.07-0218.12 WRMS resid 0.160 totl 0.025 xtrk
    
    Using Satevo 0.51, I estimate decay late Feb 18 or early Feb 19 UTC.
    
    Northern hemisphere observers south of about 45 N have evening visibility.
    
    It will be interesting to see if it survives long enough for Derek to see it
    one last time. Satevo propagated the above to a decay a couple of hours
    earlier, near 00:30 UTC on Feb 19, so it seems a long-shot, but who knows?
    
    Expect the object to run at least several minutes early tomorrow night,
    relative the above elements. Below are the final three revs propagated by
    Satevo, which could prove more realistic than the above for the final hours
    of orbit. Due to the object's low altitude, its path across the sky will be
    very sensitive to prediction time error. Comparing between the predictions
    using the above elements and one of the Satevo below, will roughly bracket
    the range of pass times and tracks.
    
                                                             138 X 191 km
    1 35939U 09052C   10049.83416816  .20581907  00000-0  54095-3 0 90006
    2 35939  59.5972 269.2398 0040963 359.7442   0.2537 16.40241322   128
                                                             134 X 179 km
    1 35939U 09052C   10049.89507042  .28339881  00000-0  54252-3 0 90009
    2 35939  59.5964 268.9585 0034581 359.8222   0.1766 16.43160532   139
                                                             128 X 161 km
    1 35939U 09052C   10049.95584045  .51023823  00000-0  59030-3 0 90005
    2 35939  59.5952 268.6764 0025550 359.9004   0.0991 16.47663536   143
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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