Decay of #22585

Bjvrn Gimle @JAR (@JAR")
Tue, 06 Dec 94 14:47:01 -0800

Here are today's OIG Latest Elset for Cosmos 2238 :
1993018A #22585 C.2238
1 22585U 93018A   94340.23791228  .02158347  72643-5  73492-3 0  7114
2 22585  65.0008 106.1742 0037254 251.0939 108.6482 16.23135768 95818
 
All through last week, the acceleration of MMdot was higher than normal,
making me believe in an early decay. Now, the latest elsets give lower
acceleration than normal, and the average for the period 94332-94340
with my usual algorithm predicts the decay around midnight Wed-Thu.

Unfortunately, we have had mostly grey weather since Dec.01, with heavy fog 
clouds each morning. Also, though the satellite makes nice early morning
passes, they are in shadow, and reaches sunlight at about 5 a.m. local
time, at 65 deg. N latitude, so it is difficult even for me and Leo.
I hope he has some friends in northern Finland...
 
And, of course, it will be easy to see if it starts the decay over 
some of our locations. This may even be likely - if it still has some
maneuvering capability, the Russians may want it to decay in early
daylight over Siberia....