Decay update: Molniya 3-17 & 3-48 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 9 Jan 1997 21:07:05 +0000

#12915 = Molniya 3-17:
Bjoern has already posted that this decayed at midnight Jan 8/9 and
provided the finals OIG elsets. Here they are again, sorted and with
apogee and perigee heights added:
Molniya 3-17                                     1558 x 89 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.77556375  .99999999  18532-4  42870-2 0  6199
2 12915  62.3180  45.0079 1019796 268.3232  80.0068 14.20628975 70995
Molniya 3-17                                     1395 x 68 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.84615530  .99999999  61108-5  98602-3 0  6201
2 12915  62.3254  45.0145 0933391 270.4324  79.2474 14.48187781 71001
Molniya 3-17                                     1388 x 69 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.84610765  .99999999  59504-5  98602-3 0  6214
2 12915  62.3545  45.0959 0927980 269.8528  79.6204 14.49124018 71013
Molniya 3-17                                     1078 x 75 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.91461910  .99999999  69397-5  18562-2 0  6226
2 12915  62.3283  44.8328 0721355 271.2505  80.8496 14.96854395 71027
Molniya 3-17                                     669 x 67 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.98072892  .99999999  83148-5  12633-2 0  6234
2 12915  62.2853  44.5003 0445911 274.4759  81.2296 15.66775958 71032
The following  SatEvo evolution satisfies the equator crossing times for
these revs to better than 1 second; the drag (ndot/2) terms look less
monotonous than the multitude of 9's above. I adjusted the initial
eccentricity to give a perigee height of 69km.
Molniya 3-17                                     1679 x 69 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.77556044 2.62994377  22621+1  11200-2 0 96191
2 12915  62.3180  45.0079 1109799 268.3232  78.9601 14.05735553 70991
Molniya 3-17                                     1404 x 69 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.84608963 3.19844083  32900+1  12305-2 0 96196
2 12915  62.3008  44.7881 0938160 268.3420  80.9058 14.46644081 71009
Molniya 3-17                                     1089 x 69 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.91454329 4.14997910  65092+1  13843-2 0 96199
2 12915  62.2864  44.5602 0732750 268.3619  83.2392 14.96114150 71016
Molniya 3-17                                     678 x 69 km
1 12915U 81105A   97008.98058997 7.07927125  36328+2  18024-2 0 96190
2 12915  62.2601  44.3212 0450876 268.3831  86.4492 15.64915930 71020
I suspect decay occurred close to perigee (in the S hemisphere) at about
January 9.03.

             --------------------------------------

#24641 = Molniya 3-48 r:
This may decay at about January 12.2 according to my latest analysis. A
SatEvo evolution satisfies 8 elsets (Jan 8.36...Jan 9.47) to within 0.15
sec and leads to the following predicted elsets.
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            232 x 175 km
1 24641U 96060B   97010.02793143  .02316751  25921-2  56150-3 0 91542
2 24641  62.7907 220.1044 0043930 127.9287 232.4684 16.25935515 12282
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            222 x 171 km
1 24641U 96060B   97010.51956508  .02799848  41879-2  56452-3 0 91549
2 24641  62.7898 218.0948 0038691 128.0284 232.3205 16.28431833 12361
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            210 x 167 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.01035941  .03637932  77437-2  57057-3 0 91541
2 24641  62.7888 216.0806 0032631 128.1285 232.1653 16.31549348 12440
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            193 x 160 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.50005826  .05455221  19826-1  57799-3 0 91545
2 24641  62.7874 214.0603 0025172 128.2291 231.9973 16.35863727 12523
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            159 x 143 km
1 24641U 96060B   97012.04885247  .16842037  25766+0  36996-3 0 91549
2 24641  62.7843 211.7757 0012263 128.3432 231.7670 16.45583006 12610

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
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