Re: Decay update: Molniya 3-48 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 11 Jan 1997 10:25:34 +0000

In message <JtVcRCAS2s1yEwbn@wingar.demon.co.uk>, Alan Pickup
<alan@wingar.demon.co.uk> writes
>
>My latest analysis points to decay at about January 12.02 but this is
>still uncertain by one or two orbits...

Well, who said this was a precise science :-)

Here is the latest OIG elset:
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            192 x 155 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.25464711  .06877253  86726-5  53022-3 0  1726
2 24641  62.7954 215.0556 0028662 120.6048 239.8937 16.37146472 12488
which indicates that it was running all of 40 seconds earlier than my
prediction of a few hours ago; the uncertainty must have been greater
than I thought and the decay will be sooner. Taken alone, this elset
evolves to decay at January 11.8, but yet another analysis (using elsets
since January 10.58) suggests that decay may occur at January 12.66
(~15.20 UT).

SatEvo predictions:
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            176 x 148 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.43759619  .14615089  16816+0  55274-3 0 91723
2 24641  62.7941 214.2949 0021371 120.6423 239.5685 16.41562024 12519
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            168 x 144 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.49847096  .18576843  28869+0  51571-3 0 91721
2 24641  62.7935 214.0405 0018311 120.6549 239.5257 16.43560613 12526
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            159 x 140 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.55925974  .26341938  64041+0  48760-3 0 91722
2 24641  62.7927 213.7857 0014631 120.6674 239.4768 16.46227328 12537
Molniya 3-48 r   7.5  2.6  0.0  5.3 d            144 x 132 km
1 24641U 96060B   97011.61992344  .50783912  28076+1  50000-3 0 91722
2 24641  62.7915 213.5303 0009642 120.6801 239.4150 16.50534844 12541

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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