Re: Decay Watch: Molniya 3-16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 24 Jan 1998 15:14:26 +0000

Regarding the very low perigee of Molniya 3-16, Ron Lee writes
>I will let the experts correct me on this, but I think that perturbations
>can lower the perigee.  Of course it could have been done on purpose to
>force it to decay.

The decrease in perigee height from almost 400 km a year ago can be put
down entirely to luni-solar gravitational perturbations, and the fall is
probably still continuing. The 69 km perigee height in the latest OIG
elset...
Molniya 3-16                                     26192 x 69 km
1 12512U 81054A   98023.91000000  .00001534 -99657-5  00000-0 0   391
2 12512  62.1530  93.5650 6695287 272.3010 102.7930  3.18642047123414
...may be too low, and the drag term should probably be closer to 0.045
than the .00001534 given. On the other hand the perigee in these
predictions may be too high...
Molniya 3-16                                     25595 x 89 km
1 12512U 81054A   98024.76976541  .04584700  61046-3  90416-3 0 90369
2 12512  61.9771  93.2232 6635098 272.3430  19.0341  3.25839457123575
Molniya 3-16                                     25375 x 89 km
1 12512U 81054A   98025.07547715  .04641284  62361-3  90248-3 0 90366
2 12512  61.9538  93.1265 6615709 272.3537  19.1895  3.28659888123583
Molniya 3-16                                     25157 x 89 km
1 12512U 81054A   98025.37857213  .04698576  63673-3  90087-3 0 90360
2 12512  61.9319  93.0294 6596304 272.3647  19.3454  3.31490692123596
Molniya 3-16                                     24942 x 89 km
1 12512U 81054A   98025.67908535  .04756587  65025-3  89932-3 0 90364
2 12512  61.9099  92.9321 6576882 272.3758  19.5016  3.34332032123606
Molniya 3-16                                     24728 x 89 km
1 12512U 81054A   98025.97705103  .04815331  66418-3  89784-3 0 90368
2 12512  61.8879  92.8345 6557442 272.3871  19.6581  3.37184074123616

Alan
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