Decay watch update: January 2

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 2 Jan 1999 19:17:41 +0000

These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and 
superseded since my update yesterday. They include the first notices
for the Lacrosse 2 Titan 4 rocket.

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
     
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r     Jan  1 23:07     Jan  4 23:23 +-2d

#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r        Dec 30 18:20     Jan  6 17:52 +-4d

 #4583 = Meteor 1-6               Jan  1 08:08     Jan  8 07:57 +-4d

#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r             Jan  1 18:04     Jan  8 18:16 +-4d
#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r             Jan  1 21:20     Jan  8 17:30 +-4d

#25533 = Sputnik 41               Dec 30 20:36     Jan  9 21:00 +-6d


               -------------------------------

My own current SatEvo predictions follow. The predicted decay dates 
have slipped during the past two days.
 
   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay

 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  4.9 +-0.5d
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  7.1 +-0.9d
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6             January  7.7 +-1.0d
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  8.2 +-1.2d
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 10.1 +-1.5d
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 19   +-4d
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 H2 r             January 22   +-4d

               -------------------------------

SatEvo-predicted elsets:

Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            252 x 181 km
1 25421U 98046J   99003.02263846  .02990044  38984-2  95058-3 0 92458
2 25421  44.9164 201.8553 0054308 329.6184  30.0680 16.21195273 23864
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            238 x 177 km
1 25421U 98046J   99003.51506856  .03741383  66810-2  95834-3 0 92455
2 25421  44.9155 198.7560 0046851 332.9168  26.8395 16.24476767 23947
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            221 x 171 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.00636654  .05196937  14897-1  96828-3 0 92452
2 25421  44.9144 195.6473 0037978 336.2256  23.5994 16.28772414 24020

Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            281 x 195 km
1 25532U 98066F   99003.05703680  .01600305  99737-3  96862-3 0 91275
2 25532  82.4429 249.6660 0064614 127.3844 233.2057 16.13298255  9071
Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            265 x 191 km
1 25532U 98066F   99004.04842616  .01994424  17554-2  99556-3 0 91275
2 25532  82.4416 248.5208 0056136 123.4075 237.1307 16.16823594  9238

Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            215 x 210 km
1 04583U 70085A   99003.03350820  .01105453  68354-3  48249-3 0 95333
2 04583  81.1230 359.0320 0003939 130.9436 229.0904 16.22543658550052
Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            209 x 204 km
1 04583U 70085A   99004.01956761  .01358003  10695-2  48706-3 0 95331
2 04583  81.1221 357.6788 0003496 127.0813 232.9506 16.24954306550215


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/