Decay watch update: January 3

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 3 Jan 1999 18:18:21 +0000

These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and 
superseded since my update yesterday.

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
     
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r     Jan  3 00:42     Jan  5 00:22 +-1d

#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r        Jan  2 22:19     Jan  6 14:51 +-2d

 #4583 = Meteor 1-6               Jan  1 08:08     Jan  8 07:57 +-4d

#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r             Jan  1 21:20     Jan  8 17:30 +-4d

#25533 = Sputnik 41               Dec 30 20:36     Jan  9 21:00 +-6d

               -------------------------------

Against the evolution I posted yesterday, the Orbcomm 13 Pegasus was 
running 7.5 seconds early at an elset for 99003.576. I still predict 
decay for January 4.9, now +-0.25 day. New prediction:
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            221 x 168 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.00617927  .05532391  16232-1  94762-3 0 92519
2 25421  44.9099 195.6419 0040418 332.2246  27.5602 16.29278788 24023
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            201 x 161 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.37350364  .08609135  46107-1  96249-3 0 92518
2 25421  44.9086 193.3003 0030845 334.7173  25.1321 16.34283454 24082
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            174 x 149 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.67849804  .18104391  22852+0  73163-3 0 92517
2 25421  44.9066 191.3396 0019619 336.8048  23.1065 16.41691818 24137
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            133 x 124 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.86051392  .92949757  10048+2  51999-3 0 92519
2 25421  44.9037 190.1546 0006812 338.0665  21.9041 16.54193286 24162

               -------------------------------

The Iridium 2 Delta rocket was only 1.7 seconds early at 99003.552. 
My decay prediction is little changed at January 7.0 +-0.7 day.
Predicted elsets:
Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            266 x 190 km
1 25532U 98066F   99004.04838933  .02016402  17884-2  98227-3 0 91319
2 25532  82.4397 248.5222 0057848 122.5835 237.9764 16.16889510  9232
Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            247 x 184 km
1 25532U 98066F   99005.03726911  .02758123  34428-2  10129-2 0 91311
2 25532  82.4380 247.3727 0047476 118.5936 241.8849 16.21534259  9392

               -------------------------------

At an elset for 99003.588, Meteor 1-6 was running 4.7 seconds late on
yesterday's prediction. I now predict decay for January 8.0 +-0.9 day.
Prediction:
Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            209 x 204 km
1 04583U 70085A   99004.01967574  .01254361  90793-3  45892-3 0 95372
2 04583  81.1208 357.6805 0003964 140.5455 219.4834 16.24710224550215
Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            202 x 197 km
1 04583U 70085A   99005.00431899  .01603278  15411-2  46272-3 0 95379
2 04583  81.1198 356.3244 0003439 136.6760 223.3510 16.27493621550372


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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