#25532 decay watch

Matson, Robert (ROBERT.D.MATSON@cpmx.saic.com)
Wed, 6 Jan 1999 15:40:36 -0800

Hi All,

I've been doing a little analysis of possible (land) reentry locations
for the Iridium 2 Delta rocket body (#25532).  Alan Pickup's current
prediction is for Jan 7 10:59 UT +-5 hours, which would put the
booster southbound in the western Pacific as Alan indicated in
his message (btw, 151 east longitude rather than west).  A few
minutes earlier, the path goes over the Kuril Islands just east of
Hokkaido, Japan.  The town of Okhotsk, Russia is on the ground
track at 10:48 UT.

If the rocket can hold on a little longer, eastern Australia would
get a nice show -- anywhere from Rockhampton to Sydney,
with Brisbane/Southport particularly favored.

If it comes in early, Africa and Europe have a shot at it.  The
track goes northbound into Africa in Nigeria at 8:53 UT,
through Niger and Algeria, exiting into the Mediterranean
at 9:01 UT near the Algeria/Tunisia border.  It passes over
both Sardinia and Corsica (9:02) and then Genoa and Milan,
Italy at 9:03.  Western-most Austria, and most of Germany
will also be in position.  The track is quite close to
Copenhagen at 9:05:30, and then all of Sweden is favored
(9:06 - 9:09) and northern Norway.

The west coast of the U.S. has a very small chance, but
it will require the rocket to come in much sooner than
expected: about 5:00 UT.  Vancouver, Seattle, Portland,
Eugene and San Francisco are all close to the ground
track.

Cheers,
Rob