SatEvo decay list #69

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 19 Jan 1999 21:32:47 +0000

SatEvo decay list #69  (issued 1999 January 19)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by 1999 March 15, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date. With drag 
rates having been low since my previous list, most decay dates 
have slipped.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24345   94- 29 NW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January  4
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r            January  4.95
 24086   94- 29 EH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January  5
 21083   90- 81 CJ  FY-1B CZ-4 deb                  January  6
 25192   87- 68 T   Meteor 2-16 deb                 January  6
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r               January  7.46
 25440   94- 29 ADV STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January  7? Notes 2,3
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6                      January  8.25
 24159   94- 29 HJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January  8
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r                    January  9.12
 25455   87- 68 CC  Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 10
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41                      January 11.32
 25230   87- 68 BH  Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 14  Note 3
 23974   94- 29 U   STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 16  Note 3
 22896   83 -75 N   Cosmos 1484 deb                 January 17
 23066   89- 89 BM  COBE deb               January 19
 24532   94- 29 WG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 20
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 20
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 21
 23972   94- 29 S   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 23
 25193   87- 68 U   Meteor 2-16 deb        January 26
  3564   68- 97 Q   Cosmos 252 deb         January 27
 25211   87- 68 AN  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 27
 24542   94- 29 WS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 28
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                January 28
 24038   94- 29 CK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 30
 24019   94- 29 BQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 31
 24405   94- 29 RJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  1
 24565   94- 29 XR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  2
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r  February  4
 23075   89- 89 BW  COBE deb              February  5? Note 2
 25186   87- 68 M   Meteor 2-16 deb       February  5
 25217   87- 68 AU  Meteor 2-16 deb       February  6
 24228   94- 29 LB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  7
 14356   81- 53 HS  Cosmos 1275 deb       February  8
 19145   87- 20 BE  Cosmos 1823 deb       February 10
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2           February 10
 25197   87- 68 Y   Meteor 2-16 deb       February 11
 22440   92- 93 EH  C 2227 Zenit deb      February 12
  5399   71- 67 L   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb     February 13
 25213   87- 68 AQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 14
 23993   94- 29 AP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 16
 24224   94- 29 KX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 16
 16187   85- 99 A   Molniya 1-65          February 19?
 19771   89-  4 E   Gorizont 17 aux mot   February 21
 24369   94- 29 PW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 21
 15551   69- 82 KQ  OPS 1807 T-Agena deb  February 22
 16683   86- 31 A   Molniya 3-28          February 23?
 23973   94- 29 T   STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 24
 24430   94- 29 SJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 24
 25452   87- 68 BZ  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 27
 24141   94- 29 GQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  4
 24270   94- 29 MV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  5
   175   61- 15 AZ  Transit 4a r deb         March  6
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r               March  7
 15440   84-123 B   NOAA 9 deb               March  8
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March 11
 25218   87- 68 AV  Meteor 2-16 deb          March 14
 25182   87- 68 H   Meteor 2-16 deb          March 15
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March 18
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r             April  8
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r        April 12
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1              April 18
 25580   98- 74 D   Iridm 11A Smart Disp     April 22
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r             April 26
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2          April 28
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r               May
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r            May
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                    October   Note 1

Notes

1. The predicted (natural) decay of Mir assumes that its orbit 
is not boosted again and that plans to de-orbit it about June 
are not carried through. 

2. No recent elsets.

3. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/