Decay watch: January 26

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 26 Jan 1999 21:05:50 +0000

The latest decay notice from SpaceCom is:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#25065 = ETS-7 H2 r               Jan 25 19:17     Jan 27 19:44 +-1d


My latest SatEvo analysis is in (very) close agreement, suggesting decay
is most likely near a northbound equator crossing at 19:48 UTC near 35
deg E longitude, above Kenya. The track just before this takes it ENE
across Africa from near the Angola-Namibia border at 19:40. Earlier it
crosses S America from just N of Santiago, Chile, at 19:21, to Buenos
Aires, Argentina, at 19:23.

Predicted elsets, which I hope to update before decay:
ETS-7 H2 r      13.5  2.5  0.0  3.0 v            196 x 185 km
1 25065U 97074C   99027.03299297  .06052296  22515-1  11437-2 0 94418
2 25065  34.5237 105.0655 0008674 352.3954   7.5915 16.30734983 66195
ETS-7 H2 r      13.5  2.5  0.0  3.0 v            186 x 177 km
1 25065U 97074C   99027.27758644  .08447381  47213-1  11268-2 0 94419
2 25065  34.5230 103.2493 0007142 355.0342   4.9585 16.34210945 66238
ETS-7 H2 r      13.5  2.5  0.0  3.0 v            170 x 164 km
1 25065U 97074C   99027.52154129  .14684873  15309+0  10753-2 0 94418
2 25065  34.5219 101.4266 0005181 357.6823   2.3153 16.39553527 66274
ETS-7 H2 r      13.5  2.5  0.0  3.0 v            131 x 129 km
1 25065U 97074C   99027.76429530  .83235827  10499+2  52387-3 0 94419
2 25065  34.5189  99.5920 0001675   0.3479 359.6522 16.53607870 66317

This is a long object and likely to be affected by a transition in
atmospheric flow regime when it falls below about 130 km. Given its rate
of decay, however, this should not extend its life significantly, unlike
a certain other recent decayer.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/