SatEvo decay list #91

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jan 15 2000 - 06:37:12 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #91  (issued 2000 January 15)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 February 29, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date. In general, drag rates have been
    lower than expected, with the result that the predicted lifetimes have
    slipped later.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
       #    Designation    Name              --- Decay (1999/2000) ---
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     14447   71- 15 CR  Cosmos 397 deb                 December 26.5
     26041   99- 72 B   C 2367 Tsyklon-2 r             December 26.85
     15707   83- 44 AA  Cosmos 1461 deb                December 27.4
     24522   94- 29 UW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 30
     25423   98- 46 L   Orbcomm Pegasus deb             January  1.4
     21960   85-118 M   C 1710 SL-12 deb                January  1
     24620   94- 29 ZY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January  5
      7847   72- 58 T   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb             January  5.6
     22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1                        January  6.22
      1962   65- 82 GX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb        January 16
     25796   80- 89 CK  Cosmos 1220 deb        January 16
     25663   94- 29 AEG STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 17
     16885   86- 57 A   Molniya 1-67           January 18?
      7842   72- 58 N   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb    January 19
     24240   94- 29 LP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 19
     24111   94- 29 FJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 21
     26044   99- 73 C   C 2368 Molniya plat    January 22
      7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r           January 23
     24368   94- 29 PV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 23
     24388   94- 29 QR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 25
     13964   83- 25 A   Molniya 1-57           January 26?
     20759   90- 43 L   Macsat Scout G-1 deb   January 26
     22346   92- 93 AK  C 2227 Zenit deb       January 28
     25220   87- 68 AX  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 28
     24614   94- 29 ZS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 31
     25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February  1
     24148   94- 29 GX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  4
     24024   94- 29 BV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  5
     22822   93- 11 H   Astro D M-3S2 deb     February  6
     22890   83- 75 G   Cosmos 1484 deb       February  6
     24331   94- 29 NG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  7
     22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     February  8
      3343   68- 66 E   Explr 39 Scout deb    February  9
     26043   99- 73 B   C 2368 Molniya-M r1   February 10
      9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          February 13
     24054   94- 29 DB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 17
     17124   86- 19 U   Spot 1 Ariane deb     February 15
     19304   61- 15 MD  Transit 4A deb        February 15
     25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February 19
     24528   94- 29 WC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 21
     25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             February 23
     24230   94- 29 LD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 26
     23887   96- 34 F   Gorizont 32 aux motor February 29
     25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r      March  2
     22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r            March 14
     15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             March?
     25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      March 25
     11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              April  5
     20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r    April 22
     16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      April 26  Note 1
     20966   90-104 A   Cosmos 2106                May
     10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r              June
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               July
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145             August
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r           August
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                  August
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077          September
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird           September
    
    
    Note
    
    1. The estimate for Mir's decay is on the (probably unrealistic) basis 
    that there are no further manoeuvres and that this decays naturally.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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