Decay watch: 2001 Jan 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 26 2001 - 11:52:20 PST

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    My final Decay Watch update on the Progress M1-5 rocket
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26689 = 01-  3 B = Progress M1-5 Soyuz-U r
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 26 09:13     Jan 25 22:11 +-1h         4.0 S    83.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan 26 19:30     Jan 25 22:06 +-40m        0.7 N    86.4 W
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M1-5 Soyuz r                            145 x 138 km
    1 26689U 01003B   01025.83042901  .19984634  12697-4  25586-3 0   207
    2 26689  51.6173 191.4329 0005335  61.8798 298.2811 16.49210992   273
    
    Note: The final elset has this running 2.1 sec early against my last
    pre-decay prediction. I place the decay near the southbound equator
    crossing to the W of Ecuador on a track that a little E of San 
    Francisco at 21:54 UTC, near Phoenix, AZ, at 21:56 and Mexico City at 
    22:00. My best guess for the elset for this final rev is:
    Progress M1-5 Soyuz r                            123 x 119 km
    1 26689U 01003B   01025.89085905 1.03303669  23840+2  40280-3 0 90207
    2 26689  51.6154 191.0848 0002917  62.1398 297.8897 16.57046504   282
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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