Decay Watch: 2002 January 10

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Jan 10 2002 - 14:51:47 EST

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    SpaceCom has posted its first decay warning for Molniya 3-19. Here
    is a summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch page.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11932 = 80- 69 A = Cosmos 1206
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 10 19:35 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 10 18:38     Jan 13 16:07 +-2d        47.3 N     1.2 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 19:35     Jan 13 21:27 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1206      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   16       224 x 218 km
    1 11932U 80069A   02010.63926488  .01624835  00000-0  89712-3 0  5544
    2 11932  81.1349 188.8500 0004911 334.5350  25.6312 16.19495922174405
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #13432 = 82- 83 A = Molniya 3-19
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 10 19:20 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jan 10 05:48     Jan 13 22:41 +-2d        32.3 n    59.6 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 19:20     Jan 14 04:30 +-1,2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-19                                     3647 x 152 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02010.69646519  .30984044  00000-0  23723-1 0  6675
    2 13432  62.4314   0.3762 2110918 277.8969  58.9306 11.52745018 69519
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-19                                     3498 x 85 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02011.04035776  .35170821  22899-1  62911-3 0 96648
    2 13432  62.2999 359.5921 2088424 279.4523  57.6967 11.75751216 69546
    Molniya 3-19                                     3331 x 85 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02011.29375405  .37021598  25860-1  64038-3 0 96642
    2 13432  62.2996 359.0448 2006615 279.4996  58.5165 11.94034868 69579
    Molniya 3-19                                     3161 x 85 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02011.54323604  .39092712  29534-1  65291-3 0 96646
    2 13432  62.2899 358.4899 1922141 279.5478  59.3662 12.13012595 69600
    Molniya 3-19                                     2990 x 85 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02011.78877601  .41433889  34315-1  66678-3 0 96643
    2 13432  62.2780 357.9266 1834664 279.5972  60.2493 12.32771110 69634
    Molniya 3-19                                     2816 x 85 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02012.03033547  .44138429  40647-1  67899-3 0 96641
    2 13432  62.2666 357.3545 1743867 279.6478  61.1695 12.53423355 69662
    
    Note: The perigee height in the latest elset is much too high - the
    one in my prediction is probably more realistic. It enters eclipse
    near 62 deg S, just after southern apex, and leaves eclipse while
    southbound near 30 deg N in the morning sky.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23733 = 95- 67 D = Telecom 2C Spelda
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 10 19:45 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  9 15:08     Jan 12 15:05 +-2d         7.1 N    55.7 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 19:45     Jan 13 20:31 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Telecom 2C Spelda                                1014 x 185 km
    1 23733U 95067D   02010.61003181  .10182115  00000-0  14265-1 0  8322
    2 23733   7.1874 315.2795 0593977 333.3469  23.3853 14.89474676 88095
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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