Decay watch: 2002 January 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jan 15 2002 - 17:25:31 EST

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    The following is a summary of my Decay Watch page update for Molniya 
    3-21 r2:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14319 = 83- 90 D = Molniya 3-21 r2
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 15 22:10 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 15 19:12     Jan 16 01:40 +-4h         1.9 N   171.1 E
    SatEvo     Jan 15 22:10     Jan 16 02:52 +-3h        39.9 S   124.5 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  569 x 91 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02015.77096167  .53579491  97794-5  43661-3 0  5026
    2 14319  62.0254 310.5419 0355851 285.0557 167.2016 15.80206621138962
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  483 x 89 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02015.88017345  .76817946  62063+0  49904-3 0 95024
    2 14319  62.0196 310.1082 0295835 285.1021  71.6442 15.95914477138985
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  426 x 88 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02015.94270816  .91742002  98541+0  52731-3 0 95024
    2 14319  62.0165 309.8553 0254695 285.1293  72.0675 16.06379706138996
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  357 x 87 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02016.00481251 1.18694296  22193+1  57306-3 0 95024
    2 14319  62.0112 309.5999 0204323 285.1568  72.5925 16.19252690139009
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  260 x 85 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02016.06637949 1.94163716  91290+1  67769-3 0 95027
    2 14319  62.0058 309.3412 0133722 285.1847  73.3404 16.37456022139017
    
    Note: I expect this to decay after perigee on the last of these SatEvo-
    predicted orbits. This puts it northbound to the S of Australia on
    a track that would carry it over the Great Australian Bight, to the E
    of Alice Springs (at 02:56 UTC), and to the Gulf of Carpentaria.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 15 2002 - 17:31:36 EST