Decay watch: 2002 January 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jan 16 2002 - 14:03:01 EST

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    Another summary of the latest notices on my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11056 = 78- 94 B = Cosmos 1043 rocket
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 16 18:55 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 16 09:37     Jan 20 05:03 +-2d         9.5 N    25.1 W
    SatEvo     Jan 16 18:55     Jan 19 22:06 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       216 x 209 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02016.56338780  .01569572 -93623-6  67481-3 0  7970
    2 11056  81.1530 355.7672 0005465 167.3735 192.7648 16.22707272279416
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14319 = 83- 90 D = Molniya 3-21 r2
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 16 18:30 UTC
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 16 01:33     Jan 16 01:25 +-7m        33.0 S   152.0 E
    SatEvo     Jan 16 18:30     Jan 16 01:24 -10+80m     39.3 S   147.5 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  324 x 81 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02016.00465438  .99999999  10015-4  43606-3 0  5066
    2 14319  62.0071 309.6607 0184562 287.6624  70.6327 16.26302270139005
    
    Note: The final published elset, above, shows this running 18 sec early
    against yesterday's prediction. While it is probably that it decayed
    around perigee on that orbit, near the SE coast of Australia, it is
    possible that it survived into the following orbit and perhaps as far
    as the next perigee.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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