Decay watch: 2002 January 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 18 2002 - 15:27:05 EST

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    The following update on the decay of #11056, the Cosmos 1043 rocket, is 
    a summary from my Decay Watch page.
    
    I note that the catalogued debris objects from the TES PSLV rocket 
    disintegration has now reached #27267 = 01- 49 HP, a total of 201 
    objects. The early elsets suggest that more than half of these should 
    decay within a year or two.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11056 = 78- 94 B = Cosmos 1043 rocket
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 18 20:10 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 18 01:39     Jan 20 02:09 +-1d         1.8 N    20.8 E
    SatEvo     Jan 18 20:10     Jan 19 19:47 +-7h        62.3 N    47.4 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       189 x 178 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02018.71565104  .03896260 -93577-6  63708-3 0  8102
    2 11056  81.1549 352.8115 0008061 180.8731 179.2445 16.33459542279766
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       181 x 171 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02019.02169219  .05085657  15808-1  62801-3 0 98103
    2 11056  81.1540 352.3863 0007242 179.6541 180.3463 16.36195511279812
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       173 x 164 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02019.26612576  .06689368  30885-1  60465-3 0 98104
    2 11056  81.1529 352.0453 0006438 178.6766 181.3251 16.39030721279859
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       161 x 154 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02019.51006192  .10360354  83815-1  46733-3 0 98102
    2 11056  81.1516 351.7034 0005346 177.6965 182.3059 16.43040319279893
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       138 x 134 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02019.75318641  .32036069  10819+1  32496-3 0 98104
    2 11056  81.1490 351.3598 0003269 176.7121 183.2900 16.51177337279931
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.7       119 x 116 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02019.81369120 1.44260424  22921+2  54440-3 0 98108
    2 11056  81.1475 351.2734 0001691 176.4645 183.5367 16.58328887279946
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 25 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction. The decay has shifted earlier and I now
    predict that this will occur northbound over the N Atlantic and
    Greenland soon after the beginning of the final SatEvo-predicted
    rev above. The uncertainty is still several orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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