The latest predictions for #11056 suggest that a decay over the USA is
possible. the following is taken from the latest update to my Decay
Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11056 = 78- 94 B = Cosmos 1043 rocket
Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 19 12:10 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 19 11:40 Jan 19 22:55 +-7h 74.6 N 34.7 E
SatEvo Jan 19 12:10 Jan 19 21:10 +-3h 44.8 N 76.7 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 166 x 158 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.44921084 .10336422 -86363-6 65568-3 0 8148
2 11056 81.1488 351.7907 0005960 227.7344 132.3450 16.41515675279889
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 162 x 155 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.51012839 .09693102 71921-1 47199-3 0 98141
2 11056 81.1484 351.7051 0005655 227.4893 132.4629 16.42666310279896
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 159 x 152 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.57102412 .11217669 10087+0 41552-3 0 98148
2 11056 81.1480 351.6194 0005312 227.2438 132.7115 16.43934473279906
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 155 x 148 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.63186916 .13445562 15386+0 36871-3 0 98148
2 11056 81.1475 351.5336 0004911 226.9980 132.9608 16.45425563279916
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 150 x 144 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.69265342 .17078971 26752+0 33227-3 0 98146
2 11056 81.1469 351.4477 0004424 226.7520 133.2111 16.47260401279925
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 143 x 138 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.75336024 .24233653 59813+0 30992-3 0 98147
2 11056 81.1461 351.3616 0003789 226.5055 133.4630 16.49709435279931
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.7 131 x 128 km
1 11056U 78094B 02019.81395485 .48059932 29336+1 33464-3 0 98147
2 11056 81.1449 351.2753 0002809 226.2584 133.7183 16.53703259279944
Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against
yesterday's prediction. I now show the decay northbound over eastern
N America on a track from Miami, Florida, at 21:05 UTC to Washington
D.C. at 21:08 and just W of Ottawa, Canada, at 21:10. The uncertainty
could be as much as one or two orbits either way, so a later pass (and
decay?) over the USA is also possible.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Jan 19 2002 - 07:32:37 EST