Decay watch: 2002 January 29

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jan 29 2002 - 17:32:44 EST

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    With decay notices being issued by SpaceCom for three more decayers, i 
    had too little time to provide all the info I would have liked in the 
    latest update to my Decay Watch page. Here is a summary; see the page 
    for the missing predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11556 = 79- 70 D = name Molniya 1-44 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 00:12     Feb  2 00:38 +-2d         2.2 S    91.5 W
    SatEvo     Jan 29 22:00     Feb  2 10:39 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 1-44 r2                                  1210 x 115 km
    1 11556U 79070D   02029.53681517  .12812142  72444-5  46247-3 0  5821
    2 11556  62.1458 240.6076 0777505 325.1318 117.1632 14.69670159188168
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 08:29     Jan 31 07:57 +-1d        25.9 S   139.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 29 21:15     Jan 31 05:49 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       199 x 196 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02029.51908166  .02695817 -76437-5  65015-3 0  7765
    2 21987  28.4221 159.6406 0002795  56.8434 303.2881 16.28238399538745
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24736 = 96- 10 F = Raduga 33 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 19:56     Feb  2 19:15 +-2d        26.1 S   100.7 W
    SatEvo     Jan 29 22:20     Feb  3 02:46 +-1.4d
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1671 x 202 km
    1 24736U 96010F   02029.73597803  .13065107  74831-5  43285-1 0  3070
    2 24736  47.6184 132.8221 1004247  78.1140 293.0127 13.87739834 64122
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24947 = 97- 51 D = Iridium 27 tum
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 10:38     Feb  1 09:39 +-2d        16.2 N   152.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 29 21:20     Feb  1 11:00 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 27 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d  7.6       242 x 239 km
    1 24947U 97051D   02029.06958054  .01996858  38014-2  19784-2 0  1894
    2 24947  86.5897  68.6268 0001797 283.1700  76.8996 16.12323108242473
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25988 = 99- 65 J = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 15:47     Feb  1 15:52 +-2d        17.3 S   102.3 E
    SatEvo     Jan 29 22:15     Feb  2 04:42 +-1.2
    
    Latest elset:
    Orb 30 Peg r2    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       272 x 216 km
    1 25988U 99065J   02029.17711984  .01978997  72292-5  16123-2 0  6856
    2 25988  40.9444 293.1321 0042239 313.1345  46.5731 16.11020056119694
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26872 = 01- 31 B = GOES 12 Atlas 2a rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 10:20     Jan 29 03:44 +-5h         6.8 S   103.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan 29 21:40     Jan 29 04:07 +-3h        18.0 N    30.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    GOES 12 Atlas 2a r                               1445 x 104 km
    1 26872U 01031B   02028.82309028  .99999999 -78676-5  39852-2 0  1357
    2 26872  20.1576 100.6446 0937395  34.0693 303.5680 14.35276062  5208
    
    Note: My final predicted evolution for this ends:
    GOES 12 Atlas 2a r                               769 x 105 km
    1 26872U 01031B   02029.09753289 3.25802814  79196+1  53103-2 0 91356
    2 26872  20.1403  98.7745 0487289  37.4624 325.8374 15.43128232  5245
    GOES 12 Atlas 2a r                               449 x 100 km
    1 26872U 01031B   02029.16088912 7.03441413  50000+2  65528-2 0 91350
    2 26872  20.1334  98.2843 0262559  38.3517 323.4865 15.99920174  5250
    though there is some uncertainty about the perigee height - it may well
    have been lower. I think that re-entry was most likely after perigee
    on the first of these two revs, northbound over the Atlantic to the
    west of Mauritania after a passage across northern South America.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26889 = 01- 35 B = SimpleSat 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 19:05     Jan 30 07:34 +-11h       51.2 S    45.5 E
    SatEvo     Jan 29 21:50     Jan 30 07:03 +-12h       14.8 N    60.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    SimpleSat 1      1.0  0.0  0.0  7.5 d 0.23       175 x 172 km
    1 26889U 01035B   02029.53705185  .06094557  12350-4  61780-3 0  2752
    2 26889  51.6182  10.8437 0001824  10.2557 349.3617 16.37183318 27054
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    <..ends>
    SimpleSat 1      1.0  0.0  0.0  7.5 d 0.23       136 x 135 km
    1 26889U 01035B   02030.20637735  .30074771  86866+0  27051-3 0 92756
    2 26889  51.6143   7.0456 0001243  13.0931 346.9101 16.51521258 27160
    SimpleSat 1      1.0  0.0  0.0  7.5 d 0.23       121 x 119 km
    1 26889U 01035B   02030.26679586  .90870587  86916+1  33966-3 0 92756
    2 26889  51.6132   6.6971 0000894  13.3535 346.6487 16.57381492 27174
    
    Note: I show this decaying on the last of these orbits possible
    southbound over the western Caribbean following a pass across N
    America from north of Vancouver at 06:48 to Charlotte, N Carolina,
    at 06:56.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Phew :)
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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