EUVE reentry probabilities

From: Matson, Robert (
Date: Tue Jan 29 2002 - 18:30:42 EST

  • Next message: Ed Cannon: "Re: EUVE reentry probabilities"

    Hi All,
    I've done a quick and dirty analysis of the upcoming EUVE decay to assess
    for the reentry impacting particular locations.  For the sake of this
    analysis, I've assumed
    a reentry date/time of 1/31 06:00 UTC +/- 12 hours.  Here are the
    probabilities I came
    up with for a number of locations (some general, some specific):
    Africa:  11.5%
    Australia:  3.8%
    Brazil:  3.4%
    Saudi Arabia:  1.9%
    India:  1.8%
    Mexico:  1.1%
    Peru:  0.9%
    Argentina:  0.8%
    Chile:  0.6 %
    Texas:  0.5%
    Venezuela:  0.5%
    Nicaragua:  0.3%
    Cuba:  0.3%
    Bahamas: 0.1%
    Hawaii:  0.1%
    Belize:  0.1%
    One large country I forgot to compute was southern China, which has a
    in the same ballpark as Saudi Arabia.  Pakistan, Iran, southernmost
    Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines all have
    probabilities of impact.  However, there is a better than 60% chance that
    will occur over the Pacific, Atlantic or Indian Ocean.
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 29 2002 - 18:36:53 EST