Another summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page. Check there
for other predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11556 = 79- 70 D = name Molniya 1-44 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 30 05:44 Feb 2 04:38 +-2d 12.3 N 33.2 E
SatEvo Jan 30 17:10 Feb 2 12:15 +-1d
Latest elset:
Molniya 1-44 r2 1073 x 109 km
1 11556U 79070D 02030.53392457 .11914745 75187-5 31116-3 0 5866
2 11556 62.1402 237.2508 0691326 325.1581 30.8394 14.92226007188315
Note: This is sunlit all around its orbit.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
NASA's Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer observatory satellite
launched on June 7, 1992. Its mission was ended on Jan. 31, 2001.
(Diameter : 3.0 m Length : 4.5 m Mass : 3275 kg)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 30 15:58 Jan 31 03:30 +-7h 22.4 S 166.0 W
SatEvo Jan 30 17:20 Jan 31 05:05 +-5h 28.3 S 142.3 W
Latest elset:
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 172 x 168 km
1 21987U 92031A 02030.61914901 .10934352 -78116-5 91268-3 0 7823
2 21987 28.4230 150.8923 0002763 19.0458 341.0300 16.38486436538928
SatEvo prediction:
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 164 x 161 km
1 21987U 92031A 02030.80169785 .09115553 55234-1 54558-3 0 97829
2 21987 28.4225 149.4300 0002462 21.4296 338.5806 16.41179320538958
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 148 x 146 km
1 21987U 92031A 02031.04449119 .17654978 25825+0 37703-3 0 97820
2 21987 28.4215 147.4735 0001854 24.6190 335.3897 16.47151156538991
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 141 x 139 km
1 21987U 92031A 02031.10502351 .24557921 55295+0 31353-3 0 97822
2 21987 28.4211 146.9826 0001604 25.4192 334.5884 16.49652156539004
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 131 x 129 km
1 21987U 92031A 02031.16544235 .45654883 23170+1 29030-3 0 97820
2 21987 28.4205 146.4904 0001224 26.2215 333.7844 16.53581686539014
Note: This is an object for which the latest elsets are showing
a sharply increased drag. My current estimate is for this to decay
over the Pacific but the low-inclination circular orbit makes this
very hard to call.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24736 = 96- 10 F = Raduga 33 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 19:56 Feb 2 19:15 +-2d 26.1 S 100.7 W
SatEvo Jan 30 17:30 Feb 3 04:28 +-1.1d
Latest elset:
Raduga 33 aux motor 1509 x 201 km
1 24736U 96010F 02030.61701762 .14020528 77639-5 41746-1 0 3102
2 24736 47.6166 129.0203 0904347 82.0730 50.9297 14.11390633 64247
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 29 deg S at a height
of ~1100 km in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs southbound near
48 deg N and not long after perigee before dawn.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24947 = 97- 51 D = Iridium 27 tum
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 30 09:05 Feb 1 02:18 +-1d 21.0 N 96.0 W
SatEvo Jan 30 17:00 Feb 1 09:39 +-12h
Latest elset:
Iridium 27 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.5 d 7.6 219 x 216 km
1 24947U 97051D 02030.55564464 .07218266 -13847-5 36513-2 0 1973
2 24947 86.5754 67.8355 0002272 254.9193 105.1813 16.20731003242711
Note: The latest elset shows a very sharp increase in drag but this
is not supported by the residuals between it and predictions from
earlier elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25988 = 99- 65 J = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 15:47 Feb 1 15:52 +-2d 17.3 S 102.3 E
SatEvo Jan 30 17:35 Feb 1 23:57 +-18h
Latest elset:
Orb 30 Peg r2 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.0 250 x 204 km
1 25988U 99065J 02030.47818287 .03040538 73669-5 16355-2 0 6900
2 25988 40.9452 284.5018 0035175 318.3251 51.3032 16.17199810119907
Note: Eclipse entry occurs southbound near 34 deg N in the evening. It
leaves eclipse near southern apex (41 deg S) in the morning sky.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26889 = 01- 35 B = SimpleSat 1
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 30 09:54 Jan 30 06:34 +-44m 20.4 N 156.9 E
SatEvo Jan 30 16:35 Jan 30 06:28 +-30m 12.9 N 150.7 E
Final elset:
SimpleSat 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 d 0.23 135 x 131 km
1 26889U 01035B 02030.20633692 .24945201 12764-4 18682-3 0 2798
2 26889 51.6168 7.0504 0003257 285.4944 74.7799 16.52557156 27163
Note: The final elset has this 8 sec early against my final prediction.
I calculate that this may have decayed soon after the northbound
equator crossing at the end of the orbit given by this final elset.
This puts it northbound over the western Pacific following a pass
across Australia from Perth at 06:14 UTC to Darwin at 06:20.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Jan 30 2002 - 13:44:42 EST