Decay watch: 2002 January 31

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Jan 31 2002 - 15:42:19 EST

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "Alert: Iridium 27 decay may occur over SoCal"

    There is one more decayer, #19541 = Molniya 3-33, to add to the batch 
    for which decay notices appear on my decay Watch page. See there for 
    further predicted elsets, beyond those in the following summary.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11556 = 79- 70 D = name Molniya 1-44 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 31 09:17     Feb  2 08:10 +-1d        56.3 N   100.1 E
    SatEvo     Jan 31 19:45     Feb  2 12:15 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 1-44 r2                                  937 x 108 km
    1 11556U 79070D   02031.33233036  .15291764  81216-5  34336-3 0  5918
    2 11556  62.1314 234.4487 0601114 325.0718  31.5000 15.14541824188436
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19541 = 88- 90 A = Molniya 3-33
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 31 00:19     Feb  2 22:50 +-2d        23.2 N   179.9 E
    SatEvo     (not predicted)
    
    Latest elsets:
    Molniya 3-33                                     6283 x 79 km
    1 19541U 88090A   02031.64722222  .02833100  65311-5  56179-4 0  1260
    2 19541  62.1844 132.5505 3244948 260.5802 278.8127  9.28957682 98092
    Molniya 3-33                                     5729 x 494 km
    1 19541U 88090A   02031.69006733  .77546091  00000-0  44174+2 0  1267
    2 19541  62.3017 132.2784 2758253 258.0391  67.8534  9.39224979 98103
    
    Note: This was lost recently for 12 days and, since its recovery, its
    elsets have been of such poor quality (see the examples above) that I
    hesitate to make a decay prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
    
    (See my earlier posting to SeeSat)
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24736 = 96- 10 F = Raduga 33 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 30 21:14     Feb  2 21:42 +-2d        21.9 N    36.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 31 20:00     Feb  3 02:56 +-20h
    
    Latest elsets:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1353 x 198 km
    1 24736U 96010F   02031.36534874  .17424675  80700-5  44685-1 0  3138
    2 24736  47.6171 125.6816 0807353  85.5171 283.8053 14.34930053 64351
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1252 x 266 km
    1 24736U 96010F   02031.50435003  .16842093  00000-0  19501+0 0  3143
    2 24736  47.6172 125.2340 0690914  86.1615 283.0283 14.39842584 64367
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1239 x 251 km
    1 24736U 96010F   02031.64291949  .15830577  00000-0  13604+0 0  3159
    2 24736  47.6248 124.5694 0693458  86.9719 282.1010 14.44202590 64376
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 29 deg S at a height
    of ~1100 km in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs southbound near
    48 deg N and not long after perigee before dawn. The two latest elsets
    have a much-too-high perigee and are ignored in my prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24947 = 97- 51 D = Iridium 27 tum
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 31 08:03     Feb  1 07:56 +-15h       44.5 S   174.5 E
    SatEvo     Jan 31 20:05     Feb  1 05:46 +-5h        17.1 N    28.1 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 27 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d  7.6       198 x 193 km
    1 24947U 97051D   02031.41810384  .06395116 -14146-5  16319-2 0  2025
    2 24947  86.5739  67.3808 0003973 256.8950 103.1952 16.28930849242857
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Iridium 27 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d  7.6       149 x 146 km
    1 24947U 97051D   02032.15228821  .34646478  10417+1  74901-3 0 92029
    2 24947  86.5677  66.9836 0001876 253.6337 106.3457 16.46975273242976
    Iridium 27 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d  7.6       131 x 130 km
    1 24947U 97051D   02032.21295409  .92348370  10027+2  69028-3 0 92028
    2 24947  86.5658  66.9501 0001217 253.3588 106.6279 16.53354843242986
    
    Note: I show this decaying southbound over the Sudan, NE Africa,
    following a pass over eastern Europe.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25988 = 99- 65 J = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 30 22:01     Feb  1 22:14 +-1d        25.1 S   131.1 E
    SatEvo     Jan 31 20:20     Feb  1 20:51 +-10h        1.0 S   173.8 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Orb 30 Peg r2    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       232 x 192 km
    1 25988U 99065J   02031.33961776  .03906087  74777-5  13817-2 0  6943
    2 25988  40.9355 278.7401 0029988 320.9424  38.9514 16.22740969120042
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Orb 30 Peg r2    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       159 x 143 km
    1 25988U 99065J   02032.74803923  .30483845  78578+0  69263-3 0 96943
    2 25988  40.9301 269.1740 0011881 332.6783  27.2592 16.45549287120271
    Orb 30 Peg r2    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       143 x 132 km
    1 25988U 99065J   02032.80864066  .67233378  42200+1  62247-3 0 96948
    2 25988  40.9292 268.7522 0008348 333.1959  26.7610 16.50821992120286
    
    Note: I predict that this will decay after perigee on the last of these
    predicted orbits, northbound over the central Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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