Taken from the latest update to my Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27631 = 02- 61 B = Shenzhou 4 CZ-2F rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Jan 8 01:13 Jan 9 21:57 +-1d 36.9 S 134.5 E
SatEvo Jan 8 19:35 Jan 9 20:44 +-7h 8.7 N 143.0 W
Latest elset:
Shenzhou 4 r 8.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 213 x 160 km
1 27631U 02061B 03008.76619825 .02860174 86021-5 34938-3 0 455
2 27631 42.3995 274.7534 0040197 209.2454 150.9551 16.32352783 1627
SatEvo prediction:
Shenzhou 4 r 8.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 203 x 155 km
1 27631U 02061B 03009.01061219 .05461129 17143-1 50227-3 0 90455
2 27631 42.3989 273.1233 0036624 211.1511 148.6313 16.35171019 1663
Shenzhou 4 r 8.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 192 x 149 km
1 27631U 02061B 03009.25469630 .07187617 32193-1 39871-3 0 90453
2 27631 42.3982 271.4892 0032279 213.0616 146.7362 16.38213139 1708
Shenzhou 4 r 8.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 171 x 139 km
1 27631U 02061B 03009.55902628 .12769392 11485+0 28303-3 0 90454
2 27631 42.3967 269.4395 0024390 215.4580 144.3796 16.43937678 1754
Shenzhou 4 r 8.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 138 x 122 km
1 27631U 02061B 03009.80142865 .35624162 11793+1 20366-3 0 90455
2 27631 42.3945 267.7900 0012531 217.3866 142.5262 16.53643518 1795
Shenzhou 4 r 8.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 108 x 102 km
1 27631U 02061B 03009.86172003 5.03187390 50000+2 88767-3 0 90459
2 27631 42.3940 267.3745 0004439 217.8724 142.0963 16.63268794 1804
Note: I have this decaying soon after the epoch of the final predicted
elset, above. This puts it over the eastern Pacific on a track that
would carry it onwards to Tucson, Arizona, at 20:53 UTC, Kansas City at
20:59, just S of Chicago and Detroit, and to Boston at 21:02. The
uncertainty is still several orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Jan 08 2003 - 15:01:30 EST