Decay Watch: 2003 January 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Jan 16 2003 - 15:23:04 EST

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    Updates from my Decay Watch page, where you'll also find more predicted 
    elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19190 = 88- 44 B = Molniya 3-32 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 15 08:06     Jan 19 04:29 +-2d        62.2 S   148.0 E E
    SatEvo     Jan 16 19:35     Jan 20 05:26 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-32 r2                                  2910 x 87 km
    1 19190U 88044B   03016.67647328  .27003929  14169-4  48087-3 0  4393
    2 19190  62.1823  70.4104 1791761 266.4733  73.7172 12.41853629106682
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23878 = 96- 33 B = Galaxy 9 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 16 09:00     Jan 17 08:03 +-18h        4.3 S   124.9 W
    SatEvo     Jan 16 19:40     Jan 17 08:35 +-5h        17.2 N    15.5 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Galaxy 9 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       184 x 183 km
    1 23878U 96033B   03016.66550848  .05656184  00000-0  81679-3 0  6616
    2 23878  25.7848 125.8015 0000951 313.9074  45.9260 16.33479661348353
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    Galaxy 9 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       144 x 142 km
    1 23878U 96033B   03017.27426819  .37378158  12481+1  58336-3 0 96610
    2 23878  25.7825 120.8138 0001233 322.3657  37.6257 16.48716292348459
    Galaxy 9 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       124 x 123 km
    1 23878U 96033B   03017.33466589 1.12590927  10613+2  47965-3 0 96611
    2 23878  25.7817 120.3098 0000881 323.2204  36.7736 16.56162287348467
    
    Note: I show this decaying southbound over Niger and Chad, northern
    Africa, on the last of these predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26746 = 01- 15 B = GSAT-1 GSLV rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 16 03:02     Jan 18 02:38 +-1d        14.9 N   112.0 E
    SatEvo     Jan 16 19:50     Jan 18 00:41 +-12h       19.0 N    97.2 E
    
    Latest elsets:
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    1900 x 107 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03016.57760512  .42245926 -43540-4  13465-2 0  9890
    2 26746  19.0058 148.1008 1213898  44.5043 329.1972 13.68967399 24037
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    1773 x 180 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03016.64939976  .36381593  00000-0  61889-1 0  9907
    2 26746  19.1967 148.0644 1083070  37.5725 333.6957 13.76426023 24045
    
    Note: The published elsets are still of poor quality with regard to
    perigee height. The predicted elsets and the decay time remain very
    uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26929 = 01- 43 A = Starshine 3
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 15 17:31     Jan 21 09:17 +-3d        12.7 S   152.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 16 20:05     Jan 21 12:42 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       232 x 222 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03016.71797253  .01212793  00000-0  76242-3 0  6858
    2 26929  67.0180  73.4972 0007737 331.4368  28.6918 16.17374109 73616
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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