Decay watch: 2003 January 17

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 17 2003 - 15:16:37 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Ceasing my publication of elsets"

    As usual, please check my Decay Watch page for the predicted elsets 
    associated with the following updates.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19190 = 88- 44 B = Molniya 3-32 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 17 00:05     Jan 20 00:05 +-2d        17.7 S   131.1 E
    SatEvo     Jan 17 19:35     Jan 20 07:14 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-32 r2                                  2493 x 86 km
    1 19190U 88044B   03017.54657236  .35057192  15984-4  51476-3 0  4470
    2 19190  62.1854  68.2654 1569560 266.8495  79.2802 12.93159271106792
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23878 = 96- 33 B = Galaxy 9 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 17 08:25     Jan 17 07:42 +-7m        25.0 S   174.0 E
    SatEvo     Jan 17 19:20     Jan 17 07:26 +-5h        14.6 S   104.9 E
    
    Final elset:
    Galaxy 9 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       171 x 156 km
    1 23878U 96033B   03017.03126507  .11103191 -11960-4  66941-3 0  6641
    2 23878  25.7833 122.7154 0011449 272.8810  87.4926 16.40848968348428
    
    Note: I have it decaying southbound to the NW of Australia on a track
    that caries it over the Great Sandy Desert at 07:31 UTC to the coast
    of Queensland to the N of Brisbane at 07:37. My predicted elset for
    the start of that rev is:
    Galaxy 9 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       135 x 128 km
    1 23878U 96033B   03017.27374261  .70391164  49130+1  47245-3 0 96643
    2 23878  25.7814 120.7107 0005064 276.2807  83.6615 16.53079451348467
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26746 = 01- 15 B = GSAT-1 GSLV rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 17 10:22     Jan 18 10:23 +-17h       18.6 N    34.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan 17 19:50     Jan 18 08:41 +-6h        19.1 N    21.0 W
    
    Latest elsets:
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    1264 x 106 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03017.56467354  .53444596 -13591-4  12252-2 0  9991
    2 26746  18.9894 141.9683 0819933  55.7000 313.1337 14.62647293 24177
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    1037 x 101 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03017.83371489  .75553480  26834+0  12343-2 0 99999
    2 26746  18.9844 140.1205 0673458  59.0912 307.3587 14.99472205 24218
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    834 x 99 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03018.03096497  .98773334  56995+0  12891-2 0 99991
    2 26746  18.9795 138.6956 0536903  61.7063 303.6073 15.33289857 24248
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    559 x 95 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03018.22306643 1.67215566  24015+1  14894-2 0 99998
    2 26746  18.9734 137.2267 0345329  64.4023 299.1263 15.81249983 24279
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    421 x 94 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03018.28551133 2.47068602  82544+1  16961-2 0 99994
    2 26746  18.9696 136.7229 0246612  65.3270 297.2212 16.06232760 24284
    
    Note: I have this decaying near perigee soon after the end of the
    final predicted orbit above. This puts near northern apex, eastbound
    near the Cape Verde Islands in the Atlantic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26929 = 01- 43 A = Starshine 3
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 17 14:48     Jan 21 10:29 +-2d        66.9 S    56.8 E
    SatEvo     Jan 17 20:00     Jan 21 06:30 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       223 x 214 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03017.76829144  .01584938  60165-5  79686-3 0  6917
    2 26929  67.0168  69.8677 0006625 332.3770  27.6970 16.20385765 73784
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jan 17 2003 - 15:49:19 EST