Decay watch: 2003 January 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jan 20 2003 - 17:03:24 EST

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    Updates from my Decay Watch page, including my final pre-decay 
    prediction for Starshine 3.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19190 = 88- 44 B = Molniya 3-32 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 19 23:38     Jan 19 23:02 +-2h        40.8 S    69.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan 20 21:15     Jan 19 22:54 +-90m       53.5 S    86.6 W
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-32 r2                                  753 x 78 km
    1 19190U 88044B   03019.77546911  .99999999  73164-5  57203-3 0  4631
    2 19190  62.1627  61.6214 0497327 268.2218  86.1975 15.50439304107106
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed following perigee on the first of
    these predicted SatEvo revs, to the W of the southern tip of South
    America:
    Molniya 3-32 r2                                  476 x 78 km
    1 19190U 88044B   03019.90291041 2.45153490  52638+1  88879-3 0 94605
    2 19190  62.1499  61.1175 0299109 268.7285  87.8436 15.99085754107122
    Molniya 3-32 r2                                  244 x 74 km
    1 19190U 88044B   03019.96505402 5.93657549  50000+2  11043-2 0 94600
    2 19190  62.1331  60.8611 0129404 268.7537  89.7634 16.42571941107137
    There is a chance that it survived to decay up to one orbit later.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26929 = 01- 43 A = Starshine 3
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 20 17:54     Jan 21 05:35 +-8h        26.2 N    22.8 E
    SatEvo     Jan 20 21:45     Jan 21 04:04 +-3h        25.6 N    45.2 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       174 x 166 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03020.67712757  .06621087  62575-5  60885-3 0  7115
    2 26929  67.0106  59.7055 0005930 304.3423 172.9955 16.38467802 74258
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       166 x 159 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03020.84021438  .10380520  85999-1  67347-3 0 97112
    2 26929  67.0095  59.1257 0005140 304.1662  55.7850 16.41376034 74284
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       162 x 155 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03020.90112586  .12258834  12525+0  59948-3 0 97119
    2 26929  67.0090  58.9085 0004778 304.1003  55.8544 16.42747723 74290
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       157 x 151 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03020.96198177  .15147081  20194+0  51333-3 0 97110
    2 26929  67.0085  58.6910 0004355 304.0342  55.9244 16.44401214 74308
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       151 x 146 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03021.02276894  .20274438  39019+0  44780-3 0 97118
    2 26929  67.0079  58.4731 0003825 303.9681  55.9955 16.46519251 74318
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       143 x 138 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03021.08346331  .32487580  11103+1  41250-3 0 97119
    2 26929  67.0070  58.2548 0003092 303.9018  56.0687 16.49588788 74322
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       123 x 121 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03021.14399790 1.41325909  24085+2  62012-3 0 97113
    2 26929  67.0055  58.0358 0001617 303.8354  56.1492 16.56696769 74338
    
    Note: My prediction is for this to decay southbound over Saudi Arabia
    on the last of my predicted orbits, above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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