USA 129 manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (seesat@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Jan 05 2006 - 22:19:08 EST

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    I have updated my review of all USA 129 (96072A / 24680) reboosts during the
    life of USA 161 (01044A / 26943) for which I have orbital elements. The results
    are summarized below:
    
                                 01044A lag
    96072A boost  UTC     Lat      h:mm:ss
    ---------------------------  ----------
    2002 Apr 04  16:27  00.17 S   +2:41:41
    2002 Jun 27  15:09  81.45 N   +2:40:31
    2002 Sep 12  16:35  14.52 S   +2:45:44
    2003 Jan 17  14:03  39.72 N   +2:39:00
    2003 Mar 27  15:46  81.39 S   +2:46:00
    2003 Jun 05  18:44  42.13 N   +2:40:39
    2003 Aug 07  13:58  16.61 S   +2:37:09
    2003 Oct 16  14:33  31.89 S   +2:48:44
    2003 Dec 18  12:54  57.99 N   +2:42:16
    2004 Feb 12  17:34  60.42 N   +2:44:06
    2004 Mar 18  17:43  06.00 S   +2:42:31
    2004 Mar 23  14:16  09.74 N   +2:42:16
    2004 Jun 17  13:55  72.28 S   +2:46:57
    2004 Aug 26  15:21  29.90 N   +2:40:19
    2004 Nov 18  14:43  61.63 N   +2:24:36
    2005 Feb 03  16:49  49.42 S   +2:36:38
    2005 May 05  15:05  62.09 S   +2:27:33
    2005 Jul 21  15:14  49.20 N   +2:16:20
    2005 Oct 13  18:04  41.00 N   +2:14:30
    
    The reboost times ranged between 12:54 and 18:44 UTC, about a 6 hour span, that
    seems to fit nicely into an 8 h workday.
    
    During the past year, 01044A's lag behind 96072A at the time of time of the
    latter's manoeuvre has steadily decreased. It is likely that many factors
    unknowable by us influence the timing of reboosts. What is certain is that we
    should be alert for 96072A reboosts at 01044A lags as short as +2:14, a
    threshold I estimate will next be reached on 2006 Jan 14 UTC.
    
    USA 129's replacement in the KeyHole western orbital plane, USA 186 (05042A /
    28888), was launched in October, so it will be interesting to see whether USA
    129 will make its reboost. I recall rumours to the effect that new reconsats
    take several months to commission, in which case, USA 129 may still be the
    primary satellite.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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