RE: Optical 12 Jan 2007

From: Ted Molczan (molczanseesat@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Jan 13 2007 - 10:45:19 EST

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    Greg Roberts wrote:
     
    > (2) USA 186 #28888 not seen on first pass- may have been too 
    > low/faint. No second pass due to clouds.
    
    When last observed, by Tony Beresford, on 2007 Jan 09 at 13:20 UTC, the object's
    perigee was within a few degrees of the equator, one of the circumstances in
    which this type of object is known to make some of its manoeuvres.
    
    The following search elsets assume a reboost occurred at the first perigee after
    Tony's observation, so they should approximate the worst-case scenario in terms
    of late arrival:
    
                                                            260 X 1025 km
    1 70000U          07009.59699074  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
    2 70000  97.9178  73.7972 0545000 177.6415 359.0000 14.75000000    04
                                                            260 X 1058 km
    1 70001U          07009.59699073  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
    2 70001  97.9178  73.7972 0567000 177.6415 359.0000 14.69800000    00
    
    Greg, relative your first pass tonight (Jan 13 UTC), the 70000 elset would be 11
    min late, and the 70001 elset would be 32 min late. Probably, the 70000 elset
    will be closest to reality, but last year, USA 129 boosted to an orbit like
    70001, which is the highest I recall for a KH.
    
    In case the object does not appear in the last known orbit, you may wish to be
    ready to switch to planar search mode (unless it would interfere with more
    important targets).
    
    You could get away with using the last known orbit as the basis of the planar
    search, in which case, the object would be 1 to 2 deg above the predicted track,
    depending on the magnitude of the manoeuvre. (This is for your first pass
    tonight.)
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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