FengYun 1C debris - More Good News This Morning (US Time)

From: Larry Van Horn, N5FPW (n5fpw@brmemc.net)
Date: Sun Jan 28 2007 - 08:55:38 EST

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    Just when you thought it could not get worse -- it did!  Now we have 516 
    objects to play with as of this morning. We are now up to 30233 / 
    1999-025WS.
    
    Larry Van Horn, N5FPW
    ATC (AW)      USN (Ret)
    Milcom/Help Desk Columnist
    Assistant Editor Monitoring Times
    Blog Address: http://mt-milcom.blogspot.com/
    
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: "John Locker" <john@satcom.freeserve.co.uk>
    To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>
    Sent: Sunday, January 28, 2007 6:25 AM
    Subject: Re: FengYun 1C debris
    
    
    > Thats rather worrying Björn , bearing in mind the present launch date of 
    > STS 117  (March 15 )
    >
    > John
    >
    >
    >
    > ----- Original Message ----- 
    > From: "Björn Gimle (GlocalNet)" <bg_26934@glocalnet.net>
    > To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>
    > Sent: Sunday, January 28, 2007 11:06 AM
    > Subject: Re: FengYun 1C debris
    >
    >
    >> Re collision hazard:
    >> Note that ISS has westward precession and Fengyun eastward;
    >> Fengyun's perigee precesses ;
    >> and the debris' high apogees decay into lower altitudes.
    >> These work together to bring more object into ISS' orbit.
    >>
    >> The worst week in 99 days, with as much as 99 km altitude tolerance,
    >> and 300 km range, seems to be March 8-14 with 51 "close" encounters.
    >> (within 10 km altitude 0228-0306 is worse with five encounters?)
    >>
    >> /Björn
    >>
    >> This was done before I knew of the "300" new fragments.
    >> With these, I only get eight more in range, and the worst week moves back 
    >> to March 9-15.
    >>
    >> ----- Original Message ----- 
    >> From: "Edward S Light"
    >>
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