Vortex 6 recovered by Greg Roberts

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Jan 19 2013 - 16:21:04 UTC

  • Next message: satrack@libero.it: "Remote F Obs. 14-18 Jan 2013"

    Greg Roberts searched for and found Vortex 6 (89035A / 19976) on 2013 Jan 18 UTC, near 75.7 E, more than 8 deg east of
    prediction based on its last known orbit.
    
    I offer the following guesses.
    
    Assuming it is still drifting east, and that it manoeuvred to the present orbit immediately after the previous
    observation (on 2012 Dec 15 UTC), these would be its current elements:
    
    1 79976U          13018.47213660  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 79976   7.2075  13.9415 0973812 242.4675 107.3084  1.00409894    02
    
    Rate of drift would be nearly 0.5 deg/d east. Of course, it is highly unlikely to have manoeuvred immediately after the
    Dec 15 observation, so the actual magnitude of the drift is likely somewhat greater; therefore, if not seen in this
    orbit, it is recommended to search further east.
    
    Another possibility is that it manoeuvred sometime after Dec 15 to a rapidly eastward drifting orbit, arrived at 75.7 E
    prior to Greg's observation last night, and then manoeuvred to synchronize its orbit, in which case, these would be its
    elements:
    
    1 79977U          13018.47231432  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
    2 79977   7.2075  14.1804 0973812 242.4675 107.3084  1.00273700    03
    
    The real orbit probably is none of the above, but I hope these will assist in making the next observation.
    
    Happy hunting!
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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