Here is a quick update. USSTRATCOM's epoch 14361.97334517 TLE looks promising as the basis to propagate the re-entry to theoretical impact. As is, it requires an unrealistically high value of Cd A / m, but this is highly sensitive to perigee height, which appears to be at least 10 km too high. Increasing the eccentricity value of the TLE less than 2 percent to 0.0852036, yields a reasonable trajectory using a reasonable value of Cd A / m (0.11 m^2/kg). The resulting trajectory appears to be late by a significant fraction of one minute, but otherwise is reasonable. Its ground track passes within a few kilometres of the location of the second debris find, in Andradina. I intend to seek the combination of perigee height and Cd A / m that best fits the known facts. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Thu Jan 01 2015 - 12:30:32 UTC
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