IGS 9 launch orbit estimations

Hi all;

The IGS-9 (Information Gathering Satellite) is scheduled to launch the
2015/1/29 at 01:00:00 UTC from Tanegashima Space Center aboard a H-IIA 202
launch vehicle.

Here my humble rought orbit estimation, based on last IGS-Radar (and
optical) launch, appliyng Ted Molczan's method, assuming a launch at window
opening:

IGS 9 payload                                            505 X 511 km
1 71000U 15600A   15029.21251157 0.00030000  00000-0  00000+0 0    05
2 71000  97.5051  95.9893 0004046 301.2708  29.2542 15.18152820    02

IGS 9 rocket                                             426 X 518 km
1 71001U 15601A   15029.21251157 0.00070000  00000-0  00000+0 0    02
2 71001  97.4511  95.9796 0067098 145.2888 190.6828 15.29983957    01

Both elsets has epoch at T+26 minutes after launch, that is when the
spacecraft separation is scheduled. So the elsets are void till 05:06:00
UTC from 2015/01/29.
If the estimation is correct, the spacecraft will be at about 10.34 degrees
more "west" on RAAN than IGS 5A (#36104) and more or less in same mean
anomaly, so it will be in the "west" constellation. Also, it will be about
9.88 degrees more "west" in RAAN than IGS 7 (#37954) and more than 20
minutes later in mean anomaly. The elset is sun-syncronous.
Curiously, last IGS launch (IGS-8) occurred the 2013/1/27, two years and
two days before this launch.

Decay rate estimations are based on other mission's data.

​I remember 3 summers ago when IGS-5 was launched that every day the rocket
made same track on the evening sky, passing near zenith and making
extremely bright flares (mag -7 or -8 (!)) on zenith, till atmospheric drag
made to be every day earlyer and in consequence more "east" on the sky
every day, becoming unpredictable without using softwares.​

I like this estimation but I would prefer to wait till Ted publishes his
own one.

Please let me know any corrections/suggestions/questions.

*There is not planned any webcast.



​Jon.​

-- 
Jon Mikel, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque Country.
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