TLEs / decays

Bjorn Gimle (Bjorn_Gimle@lector.kth.se)
Tue, 25 Jul 95 13:28:29 +0100

The following fragment may decay after sunset Thu.Jul.20 at
Southern U.S. latitudes, but is only .0170 sq.m. according to
NASA's ssr06orb, just released :
Nimbus 4 Agena fragment
1 17170U 70025PC  95200.55795557  .02712034  64379-2  64714-2 0  1316
2 17170  99.8462 228.6759 0021958 218.8028 141.1782 15.97740629505700

This rocket will decay about July 27:
Cosmos 2312 SL-6 rocket
1 23585U 95026B   95200.56962391  .00657037  80191-5  66334-3 0  1058
2 23585  62.8103 283.7025 0125162 124.8523 236.4458 15.96379749  8778

#22808 is visible, at least from Canada and
mid-northern Europe, until decay. 

ndot2 has  not kept  a constant  difference compared  to the  recently
decayed EORSATS, which would indicate that the orbit correction system
is working at maximumum efficiency. If this were true, it would  decay
within a week.

Instead, ndot2 has been about 1/3 of what #22709 had in  corresponding
orbits, indicating a similar relation in area/mass ! If this is  true,
it could last about three weeks, and become visible over larger areas.

EORSAT Cos.2264  6.0  0.0  0.0  4.5
1 22808U 93060A   95200.56854240  .00345279  71132-5  24581-3 0  3073
2 22808  64.9768 269.8874 0057092 245.2239 114.2980 16.11893285106844
Cosmos 2264      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.5
1 22808U 93060A   95200.25829838  .00347537  71099-5  25069-3 0  3066
2 22808  64.9766 271.0347 0057333 244.8012 114.7169 16.11689299106790
Cosmos 2264      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.5
1 22808U 93060A   95199.57562764  .00349763  71011-5  25930-3 0  3053
2 22808  64.9788 273.5614 0058140 244.7093 114.8057 16.11225418106687
Cosmos 2264      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.5
1 22808U 93060A   95199.26525481  .00358001  70980-5  26842-3 0  3045
2 22808  64.9783 274.7093 0058530 244.5488 114.9620 16.11024156106633
Cosmos 2264      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.5
1 22808U 93060A   95198.89275550  .00392543  70940-5  29872-3 0  3032
2 22808  64.9776 276.0835 0058778 244.6812 114.8243 16.10788035106575
Cosmos 2264      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.5
1 22808U 93060A   95190.12672648 +.00205377 +70341-5 +19406-3 0 02820
2 22808 064.9796 308.3609 0066600 243.8385 115.6012 16.06895879105161

compare:(159.3 decay)  ndot2      i         e     MM          decayprd.
22709,95,152.91835122, .01050530, 65.0208,  58122,16.12724152,95159.5
22709,95,152.36004767, .00941474, 65.0200,  56891,16.11558597,95159.7
22709,95,152.23591446, .00964839, 65.0225,  61636,16.11334437,95159.4
22709,95,151.55292813, .01076329, 65.0211,  63107,16.10059087,95158.1
22709,95,150.49626872, .00650455, 65.0208,  63510,16.07985839,95161.4
22709,95,150.37186745, .00609811, 65.0210,  67920,16.07765853,95162.0
22709,95,149.87421999, .00715857, 65.0186,  69828,16.07206362,95159.8
22709,95,149.43849104, .00466112, 65.0209,  72238,16.06459612,95164.8

A larger change in MM in <3.5 days, than C.2264 has had in 10.1 !

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Bjorn_gimle@lector.kth.se == bjorn.gimle@duesenberg.se ==
== bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se ;  59.22371 N, 18.22857 E
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