Re: Time of decay of NORAD #23957?

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 30 Jul 1996 23:46:32 +0100

In message <199607300837.DAA19930@mail.utexas.edu>, Ed Cannon
<ecannon@mail.utexas.edu> writes
>
>Subject: Time of decay of 23957?
>
>The June Sat. Sit. Rept. said NORAD #23957 decayed on 21 July.  
>
>>Objects No Longer In Orbit
>>
>>INTERNATIONAL               CATALOG          OBJECT       LAUNCH       DATE
>>IDENTIFIER     NAME         NUMBER           SOURCE        DATE       DECAYED
>>
>>1994 029E                    23957             US        19 MAY      21 JUL
>
>I have not been able to find an estimated *time* for that decay.  
>The following element set was issued shortly before 21 July (if I'm 
>calculating the date correctly).
>
>> 23957 
>> 1 23957U 94029E   96202.83639925 +.03826735 -11202-5 +29067-2 0 00065
>> 2 23957 082.2549 144.8276 0040729 268.8460 090.8162 16.13139585114381
>
>I'm not sure, but I don't think I saw this one listed in anyone's decay 
>predictions.  Were any decay elsets published anywhere?
>
>Thanks for any assistance.

Yes, that was the final published elset for this object. A SatEvo
analysis using the only four elsets I have for this object yields an
estimated decay at July 22.2 (+/-0.2d ?), with the following predicted
penultimate elset:
94029E  
1 23957U 94029E   96204.07072698  .39221717  14285+1  43008-2 0 90012
2 23957  82.1718 143.3147 0008494 273.4525  86.4503 16.37269667114589

Based on the lone elset I had at the time, I published a decay
prediction for July 25 in my SatEvo decay list #9 which I posted here on
1996 July 19. I did not post any predicted decay elset (until now). The
only other decay prediction I saw was for decay on July 19 in the
NASA/GSFC "60-Day Decay Forecast Report" issued on July 18.

Alan
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