Re: Cosmos-2313 explosion?
Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Thu, 3 Jul 1997 22:20:57 +0200
Vladimir Agapov informed us:
>
>No, explosion took place on Jun 26 (day 177) between 0212 and 0312 UTC as I was
>confirmed by some Russian sources. So, large MM increase on day 97125 was
>really a manoeuvre and not connected to explosion of this object.
This is also confirmed by orbital analysis. Small effects can be seen
on the orbit of the main piece (#23596). The inclination, decreasing
by about 0.0019 degrees/day, made a 0.008 increase on the day of the
collision. Drag seems to have increased, at least from the day after
the collision, so that I (SatEvo) predict the decay around July 11.
The small effects on #23596 makes it difficult to use pre- and post-
collision elsets for it to verify the collision time, but Vladimir
Agapov provided some elsets for the resulting debris.
COLA gave these close encounters with the 97176.85 23596 elset:
Date Local Time Norad Name Range (km) EphAge
6/26/1997 2:57:59.7 80200 95028 5.0 -0.36
6/26/1997 2:53:33.2 80201 4.4 -0.43
6/26/1997 2:53:33.2 80201 4.4 -0.43
6/26/1997 2:54:19.6 80201 6.0 -0.50
6/26/1997 2:54:00.3 80201 8.0 -0.69
6/26/1997 2:54:51.5 80201 6.6 -1.08
6/26/1997 2:56:49.9 80201 1.0 -1.40
6/26/1997 2:52:27.2 80203 95028 20.3 -0.37
6/26/1997 2:56:35.9 80204 95028 2.1 -0.43
6/26/1997 2:53:34.6 80205 95028 8.7 -0.50
6/26/1997 2:55:03.8 80206 95028 3.8 -0.49
6/26/1997 2:55:33.3 80206 95028 2.8 -0.82
6/26/1997 2:58:34.4 80206 95028 4.5 -1.39
6/26/1997 2:54:25.5 80206 95028 6.0 -4.74
6/26/1997 5:47:09.7 80209 95028 14.3 -0.29
6/26/1997 11:02:04.1 80210 95028 6.9 -0.08
6/26/1997 10:47:21.7 80211 95028 6.5 -0.15
6/26/1997 7:15:28.5 80217 95028 13.5 -0.23
6/26/1997 10:52:46.6 80218 95028 14.3 -0.52
6/26/1997 2:58:37.5 80228 95028 4.7 -5.10
6/26/1997 2:55:54.0 80240 95028 3.2 -5.09
6/26/1997 2:55:41.6 80245 95028 15.3 -0.17
6/26/1997 2:53:33.2 80250 4.4 -0.43
6/26/1997 2:53:53.7 80250 4.2 -0.75
6/26/1997 2:55:11.9 80250 3.3 -1.40
6/26/1997 2:55:51.1 80250 3.7 -5.52
6/26/1997 2:51:12.6 80253 5.7 -0.43
6/26/1997 2:48:55.2 80257 8.3 -5.07
So, I would say that the explosion (collision??) took place on June 26
around 02:56 UT (day 97177.122) when Cosmos 2313 was at 290 km,
47N, 170E, moving SE. deltaV was less than 1 m/s ?
No object in Mike's ALLDAT.TLE came within 100 km on that orbit.
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