Re: Cosmos 2313 (#23596) observation
BGimle@aol.com
Mon, 7 Jul 1997 05:34:48 -0400 (EDT)
Eric Vondra (EricVondra@aol.com) wrote:
>I was unable to locate Cosmos 2313 (95 028A, #23596) on a low elevation (20
>degrees up) pass culminating at 0804 UT July 4. I must have missed some
>messages about this satellite, as Bjoern Gimle's message of July 3 was the
>first I've seen about a mishap. I was using the following element set, which
>apparently is no longer valid:
>Cosmos 2313 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v
>1 23596U 95028A 97169.54056142 .00222435 68814-5 28294-3 0 5914
>2 23596 65.0243 5.9124 0092594 235.0197 124.2249 15.98913353115259
Indeed, the explosion took place on June 26, day 97177.
The largest change appears to be the increased drag rate, so on July 4 it was
21 minutes ahead of your elset.
(On the same day, the latest 5 elsets on OIG differ by only 4 seconds:)
The latest set =
1 23596U 95028A 97186.92752295 .00833938 71220-5 47629-3 0 6350
2 23596 65.0181 302.3440 0057171 240.4404 119.1097 16.14652707118044
Element set number = 2
1 23596U 95028A 97186.74169004 .00797211 71166-5 46307-3 0 6332
2 23596 65.0191 303.0348 0058091 240.0988 119.4458 16.14323538118013
Element set number = 5
1 23596U 95028A 97186.74168920 .00800236 71166-5 46464-3 0 6345
2 23596 65.0191 303.0349 0058091 240.0988 119.4464 16.14328380118011
Element set number = 1
1 23596U 95028A 97186.55582308 .00791908 71122-5 47071-3 0 6324
2 23596 65.0179 303.7228 0058360 240.0668 119.4727 16.14000090117986
Element set number = 4
1 23596U 95028A 97186.18397379 .00777764 71028-5 47973-3 0 6314
2 23596 65.0185 305.1004 0059104 239.6606 119.8644 16.13437145117924
The drag increase of about a factor 47/28 could mean a corresponding mass
loss to 28/47, perhaps leaving a large hole that is seldom sunlit, or an
object
with the same density, but about half in all dimensions, i.e. 1/4 the area
and
1/8 of the mass, and fainter than before.
PS. I am only evaluating AOL for possible switch from Algonet, so please
use the algonet address below, or SeeSat-L, for mail.
(I'll only be one week at the office before Aug.04)
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