SatEvo decay list #34

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 17 Jul 1997 22:48:35 +0100

SatEvo decay list #34  (issued 1997 July 17)

Time (actually, a little late because of my holiday) for another 
crop of SatEvo decay analyses and predictions. As ever, the "Actual?" 
decay dates are my estimates based on the final available elements. 
Pegasus debris are included if I predict their decay by August 31; 
other objects are included to September 30.

Fragments from Cosmos 2313 were assigned provisional catalog numbers
as #802nn. Few elsets are available for most of these, many of which 
may have decayed during the final four days of June. A dozen, however, 
have received permanent catalog numbers (#24853...#24864) while the 
orbits for two more (#80261 and #80283) appear well enough determined
to make the following list.

        This and other recent decay lists are now available on 
                    the WWW via my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

   #    Designation    Name                   ------- Decay -------
                                              Predicted   Actual?

 24559   94- 29 XK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   June 23
 24549   94- 29 WZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   June 24?
 24442   94- 29 SY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   June 25
 24802   97- 22 C   Cos 2342 SL-6 plat                   June 25.33
 23901   86- 17 KU  Mir deb                              June 26.0
 24738   97-  8 B   USA 130 r1                           June 26.23
 17481   87- 12 B   M-3S2 r                              June 28.78
 24205   94- 29 KG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July  2
(80261   95- 28)    Cosmos 2313 deb                      July  3.0
 11075   78- 80 D   Molniya 1-42 SL-6 r2                 July  3.54
 24596   94- 29 YY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July  6
 24862   95- 28 M   Cosmos 2313 deb                      July  6.9
 20856   90- 81 U   CZ-4 deb                             July  7.11
(80283   95- 28)    Cosmos 2313 deb                      July  7.7
 24860   95- 28 K   Cosmos 2313 deb                      July  7.7
 24852   97- 33 B   Progress M-35 Soyuz-U r              July  8.01
  4969   70- 25 GP  Thorad Agena D deb                   July  9.2
 24182   94- 29 JH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July  9
 23914   86- 17 LC  Mir deb                              July  9.8
 24222   94- 29 KV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July 11
 23596   95- 28 A   Cosmos 2313                          July 11.98
 24864   95- 28 P   Cosmos 2313 deb                      July 12.0
 24863   95- 28 N   Cosmos 2313 deb                      July 12.1
 24472   94- 29 TV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July 13
 24177   94- 29 JC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July 16
 24604   94- 29 ZG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                   July 16
 24859   95- 28 J   Cosmos 2313 deb                      July 16.1
 23873   86- 17 KA  Mir deb                   July 18
 24854   95- 28 D   Cosmos 2313 deb           July 19
 24295   96- 50 E   SL-6 platform             July 20
 23979   94- 29 Z   STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 25
 24856   95- 28 F   Cosmos 2313 deb           July 25
 24454   96- 58 E   SL-12 r (aux motor)       July 27
 24858   95- 28 H   Cosmos 2313 deb           July 27
 24853   95- 28 C   Cosmos 2313 deb           July 28
 24861   95- 28 L   Cosmos 2313 deb           July 30
 24046   94- 29 CT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  2
 24453   94- 29 TD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  6
 24801   97- 22 B   Cosmos 2342 SL-6 r1     August  6
 24202   94- 29 KD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  9
 24464   94- 29 TM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 11
 24395   94- 29 QY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 12
 22758   89- 89 T   COBE deb                August 13
 24192   94- 29 JT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 15
 24334   94- 29 NK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 16
 24366   94- 29 PT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 17
 24687   94- 29 AAV STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 22
 23676   95- 52 A   Cosmos 2321          September 10
 22776   89- 89 AM  COBE deb             September 12
 20389   89-100 A   Cosmos 2053          September 14

Notes

1. Object #11007 = 78- 80 A (Molniya 1-42) is no longer predicted for
imminent decay. Elsets have appeared erratically during the past month
but, though drag rates have increased, the elements do not record the 
decrease in perigee height I had expected.

2. I now expect #19057 = 63- 14 EE (Westford Needles deb) to continue
in orbit beyond end-September.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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