Decay watch Molniya 1-74

Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Thu, 30 Jul 1998 19:52:36 +0200 

Det hdr dr ett multipart-meddelande i MIME-format.

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This object should be red-hot over southern latitudes now:

MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98211.59131863  .56823015  00000-0  92953-3 0  8709
2 19730  63.5869 333.6737 1325155 245.9746  99.7453 13.48455740 72153
MOLNIYA 1-74=20
1 19730U 88115A   98211.51674370  .99999999  00000-0  73621-3 0  8653
2 19730  63.5676 333.9091 1390625 246.9615  97.9319 13.37926929 72134
Molniya 1-74                                     2240 x 72 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.44143764  .99999999  00000-0  93594-3 0  8621
2 19730  63.5416 334.0731 1438290 245.4965  98.9911 13.27607420 72121
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98211.15597488  .58051362  70838-5  79144-3 0  8595
2 19730  63.5808 334.8502 1592260 246.2038 196.5214 12.88424914 72085
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98211.02083333  .57286742  66421-5  67560-3 0  8582
2 19730  63.5856 335.1728 1665577 246.1483 293.5813 12.72544052 72067
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98210.93190148  .58336092  61738-5  64114-3 0  8565
2 19730  63.5905 335.4027 1711866 246.1760 247.7607 12.62413830 72057
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98210.86368269  .41759182  80973-5  56184-3 0  8558
2 19730  63.6014 335.5412 1760472 246.0300 298.0451 12.50409681 72045
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98210.78252772  .36668778  85921-5  44650-3 0  8546
2 19730  63.5938 335.7354 1793618 245.9915 293.7709 12.43449242 72030
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98210.52621834  .43523679  68786-5  72785-3 0  8499
2 19730  63.6003 336.2940 1897435 245.8924 237.4253 12.18539448 72008
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98210.09205700  .40075198  63161-5  62040-3 0  8446
2 19730  63.6304 337.2365 2064931 245.9461 162.4255 11.81683005 71959
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   98209.86455874  .29811729  72322-5  45904-3 0  8431
2 19730  63.6180 337.6886 2149718 245.8742 282.1573 11.62984400 71923

Although I haven't had time to make a SatEvo evolution after work, one =
of
my shots in the dark this morning fits later node crossings within a few =
seconds,
and the epochs of today's two elsets within two minutes.

The satellite has been LATER than evolution, and should continue for a =
while
since MM is lower in the elsets.

Decay Jul.31.6 ?

-----------------------------
        SatEvo v0.30
       by Alan Pickup
   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk
-----------------------------

Orbital evolution for object 88115A =20

Predicted decay after    1.6911 days on date =3D 98212.5893 (1998 July =
31)

 Uses Q-factor of 1.050000

MOLNIYA 1-74                                     2779 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98210.89818850  .57597005  64730-1  63430-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.5883 335.4815 1729079 246.1770  94.7834 12.58505380 72052
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     2703 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98210.97746103  .59189570  69305-1  64047-3 0 98563
2 19730  63.5844 335.2962 1688573 246.1748  95.2519 12.67761744 72063
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     2627 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.05615265  .60900074  75195-1  64717-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5791 335.1096 1647328 246.1727  95.7280 12.77209998 72071
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     2549 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.13425982  .62743326  81941-1  65444-3 0 98562
2 19730  63.5738 334.9217 1605284 246.1706  96.2118 12.86865412 72082
...
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     2147 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.51585846  .74704259  13318+0  70188-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5476 333.9595 1380297 246.1612  98.7834 13.38944364 72139
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     2063 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.59034493  .77869281  15078+0  71439-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5413 333.7623 1331610 246.1595  99.3356 13.50304485 72140
...
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1800 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.80996640  .89969694  22708+0  73496-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5241 333.1594 1176164 246.1549 101.0885 13.86985406 72178
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1708 x 78 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.88184850  .95236856  26540+0  72978-3 0 98563
2 19730  63.5184 332.9544 1120609 246.1535 101.7116 14.00288339 72187
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1613 x 77 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.95303885 1.01404172  31545+0  71529-3 0 98560
2 19730  63.5125 332.7473 1062733 246.1522 102.3581 14.14274329 72193
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1514 x 76 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.02351470 1.08727993  36810+0  68876-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.5062 332.5378 1002150 246.1510 103.0329 14.29068117 72201
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1411 x 75 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.09324983 1.16142393  38735+0  65094-3 0 98566
2 19730  63.4995 332.3257 0938362 246.1499 103.7408 14.44737121 72218
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1304 x 74 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.16221875 1.25100178  48600+0  62217-3 0 98561
2 19730  63.4925 332.1110 0870690 246.1489 104.4890 14.61352140 72222
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1192 x 73 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.23039124 1.36366310  63510+0  60386-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.4849 331.8933 0798186 246.1479 105.2874 14.79143626 72232
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     1072 x 72 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.29772806 1.51144378  83609+0  59821-3 0 98564
2 19730  63.4790 331.6724 0719440 246.1471 106.1508 14.98452883 72245
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     942 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.36417677 1.71131248  11964+1  61340-3 0 98563
2 19730  63.4701 331.4478 0632145 246.1465 107.1030 15.19789310 72254
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     797 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.42966432 2.01403441  20331+1  65710-3 0 98562
2 19730  63.4600 331.2192 0532847 246.1459 108.1803 15.44023539 72266
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     627 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.49407779 2.64248251  49613+1  75415-3 0 98565
2 19730  63.4511 330.9855 0413196 246.1456 109.4702 15.73374261 72277
MOLNIYA 1-74                                     390 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.55718269 4.65226725  21105+2  97165-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.4395 330.7450 0241087 246.1454 111.3095 16.16084166 72280


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This object should be red-hot over = southern=20 latitudes now:
 
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U = 88115A  =20 98211.59131863  .56823015  00000-0  92953-3 0  = 8709
2=20 19730  63.5869 333.6737 1325155 245.9746  99.7453 13.48455740=20 72153
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   = 98211.51674370 =20 .99999999  00000-0  73621-3 0  8653
2 19730  = 63.5676=20 333.9091 1390625 246.9615  97.9319 13.37926929 72134
Molniya=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2240 x 72 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.44143764  = .99999999 =20 00000-0  93594-3 0  8621
2 19730  63.5416 334.0731 = 1438290=20 245.4965  98.9911 13.27607420 72121
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U=20 88115A   98211.15597488  .58051362  70838-5  = 79144-3=20 0  8595
2 19730  63.5808 334.8502 1592260 246.2038 196.5214 = 12.88424914 72085
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A  =20 98211.02083333  .57286742  66421-5  67560-3 0  = 8582
2=20 19730  63.5856 335.1728 1665577 246.1483 293.5813 12.72544052=20 72067
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   = 98210.93190148 =20 .58336092  61738-5  64114-3 0  8565
2 19730  = 63.5905=20 335.4027 1711866 246.1760 247.7607 12.62413830 72057
MOLNIYA = 1-74
1 19730U=20 88115A   98210.86368269  .41759182  80973-5  = 56184-3=20 0  8558
2 19730  63.6014 335.5412 1760472 246.0300 298.0451 = 12.50409681 72045
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A  =20 98210.78252772  .36668778  85921-5  44650-3 0  = 8546
2=20 19730  63.5938 335.7354 1793618 245.9915 293.7709 12.43449242=20 72030
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A   = 98210.52621834 =20 .43523679  68786-5  72785-3 0  8499
2 19730  = 63.6003=20 336.2940 1897435 245.8924 237.4253 12.18539448 72008
MOLNIYA = 1-74
1 19730U=20 88115A   98210.09205700  .40075198  63161-5  = 62040-3=20 0  8446
2 19730  63.6304 337.2365 2064931 245.9461 162.4255 = 11.81683005 71959
MOLNIYA 1-74
1 19730U 88115A  =20 98209.86455874  .29811729  72322-5  45904-3 0  = 8431
2=20 19730  63.6180 337.6886 2149718 245.8742 282.1573 11.62984400=20 71923
Although I haven't had time to make = a SatEvo=20 evolution after work, one of
my shots in the dark this morning = fits later=20 node crossings within a few seconds,
and the epochs of today's two elsets = within two=20 minutes.
 
The satellite has been LATER than = evolution, and=20 should continue for a while
since MM is lower in the = elsets.
 
Decay Jul.31.6 ?
 
-----------------------------
     &= nbsp; =20 SatEvo v0.30
       by Alan=20 Pickup
   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk
--= ---------------------------
 
Orbital evolution for object = 88115A =20
 
Predicted decay = after    1.6911=20 days on date =3D 98212.5893 (1998 July 31)
 
 Uses Q-factor of = 1.050000
 
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2779 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98210.89818850  = .57597005 =20 64730-1  63430-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.5883 335.4815 1729079=20 246.1770  94.7834 12.58505380 72052
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2703 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98210.97746103  = .59189570 =20 69305-1  64047-3 0 98563
2 19730  63.5844 335.2962 1688573=20 246.1748  95.2519 12.67761744 72063
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2627 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.05615265  = .60900074 =20 75195-1  64717-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5791 335.1096 1647328=20 246.1727  95.7280 12.77209998 72071
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2549 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.13425982  = .62743326 =20 81941-1  65444-3 0 98562
2 19730  63.5738 334.9217 1605284=20 246.1706  96.2118 12.86865412 72082
...
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2147 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.51585846  = .74704259 =20 13318+0  70188-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5476 333.9595 1380297=20 246.1612  98.7834 13.38944364 72139
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 2063 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.59034493  = .77869281 =20 15078+0  71439-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5413 333.7623 1331610=20 246.1595  99.3356 13.50304485 72140
...
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1800 x 79 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.80996640  = .89969694 =20 22708+0  73496-3 0 98567
2 19730  63.5241 333.1594 1176164 = 246.1549=20 101.0885 13.86985406 72178
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1708 x 78 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.88184850  = .95236856 =20 26540+0  72978-3 0 98563
2 19730  63.5184 332.9544 1120609 = 246.1535=20 101.7116 14.00288339 72187
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1613 x 77 km
1 19730U 88115A   98211.95303885 = 1.01404172 =20 31545+0  71529-3 0 98560
2 19730  63.5125 332.7473 1062733 = 246.1522=20 102.3581 14.14274329 72193
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1514 x 76 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.02351470 = 1.08727993 =20 36810+0  68876-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.5062 332.5378 1002150 = 246.1510=20 103.0329 14.29068117 72201
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1411 x 75 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.09324983 = 1.16142393 =20 38735+0  65094-3 0 98566
2 19730  63.4995 332.3257 0938362 = 246.1499=20 103.7408 14.44737121 72218
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1304 x 74 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.16221875 = 1.25100178 =20 48600+0  62217-3 0 98561
2 19730  63.4925 332.1110 0870690 = 246.1489=20 104.4890 14.61352140 72222
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1192 x 73 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.23039124 = 1.36366310 =20 63510+0  60386-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.4849 331.8933 0798186 = 246.1479=20 105.2874 14.79143626 72232
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 1072 x 72 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.29772806 = 1.51144378 =20 83609+0  59821-3 0 98564
2 19730  63.4790 331.6724 0719440 = 246.1471=20 106.1508 14.98452883 72245
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 942 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.36417677 = 1.71131248 =20 11964+1  61340-3 0 98563
2 19730  63.4701 331.4478 0632145 = 246.1465=20 107.1030 15.19789310 72254
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 797 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.42966432 = 2.01403441 =20 20331+1  65710-3 0 98562
2 19730  63.4600 331.2192 0532847 = 246.1459=20 108.1803 15.44023539 72266
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 627 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.49407779 = 2.64248251 =20 49613+1  75415-3 0 98565
2 19730  63.4511 330.9855 0413196 = 246.1456=20 109.4702 15.73374261 72277
MOLNIYA=20 1-74           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;=20 390 x 71 km
1 19730U 88115A   98212.55718269 = 4.65226725 =20 21105+2  97165-3 0 98569
2 19730  63.4395 330.7450 0241087 = 246.1454=20 111.3095 16.16084166 72280
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