Decay watch: July 2

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 3 Jul 1999 00:04:36 +0100

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25670 = 99- 17 B = DSP 19 Titan 4 r

Note: Further elsets appeared showing that this survived beyond
the decay time that SpaceCom was so certain about yesterday. 
I hope to have time to revisit this tomorrow.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #12133 = 81-  2 A = Molniya 3-14

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 29 16:23     Jul  3 16:02 +-2d        43.6 S   179.8 E
SpaceCom   Jul  1 08:52     Jul  3 00:37 +-1d        15.8 S    75.5 E
SpaceCom   Jul  2 19:44     Jul  3 18:31 +-14h       14.7 S   164.8 E

SatEvo     Jun 29 19:10     Jul  4 01:22 +-1.2d
SatEvo     Jun 30 18:45     Jul  3 19:22 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul  1 22:45     Jul  4 00:59 +-18h
SatEvo     Jul  2 23:00     Jul  3 21:20 +-8h        58.7 S    67.9 E

Latest elset (7.3 min early against an extension of yesterday's 
prediction):
Molniya 3-14                                     1806 x 83 km
1 12133U 81002A   99183.90578009  .87308176  27708-4  89659-3 0  2619
2 12133  61.9051  13.9608 1176939 282.4004 181.0065 13.85504398 50302

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-14                                     1709 x 83 km
1 12133U 81002A   99184.02657314  .74768546  16359+0  76816-3 0 92612
2 12133  61.8946  13.5994 1117598 282.4423  65.2983 13.99305767 50327
Molniya 3-14                                     1395 x 82 km
1 12133U 81002A   99184.30828687  .93178797  29247+0  78157-3 0 92610
2 12133  61.8749  12.7144 0922773 282.5460  67.2991 14.46114747 50360
Molniya 3-14                                     1022 x 80 km
1 12133U 81002A   99184.58012082 1.30120086  71735+0  81473-3 0 92618
2 12133  61.8520  11.7921 0679671 282.6554  69.8347 15.05305042 50404
Molniya 3-14                                     464 x 76 km
1 12133U 81002A   99184.83947512 3.16825440  89411+1  10010-2 0 92612
2 12133  61.8189  10.8140 0291695 282.7735  73.9830 16.01666898 50449
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/