Decay watch: July 4

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 4 Jul 1999 17:29:12 +0100

With the end of Molniya 3-14, the next decent-sized decayer may be
#25779 = 99- 32 C = Iridium 14A CSL02 (Long March) rocket on about 
July 14. The latest elset for this (now with the Radar Cross Section
in line zero) is:

Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       440 x 164 km
1 25779U 99032C   99185.55838422  .01373770 -14891-5  55608-3 0   649
2 25779  86.3656  82.1827 0206450  79.7928 282.6762 15.90239800  3578

This is an evening object for Europe as it enters eclipse near 49 deg
N at about 22:00 local time while southbound. Eclipse exit occurs 
over Antarctica.
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Object: #12133 = 81-  2 A = Molniya 3-14

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 29 16:23     Jul  3 16:02 +-2d        43.6 S   179.8 E
SpaceCom   Jul  1 08:52     Jul  3 00:37 +-1d        15.8 S    75.5 E
SpaceCom   Jul  2 19:44     Jul  3 18:31 +-14h       14.7 S   164.8 E
SpaceCom   Jul  3 06:32     Jul  3 16:37 +-6h        41.8 S   173.0 E
SpaceCom   Jul  3 11:36     Jul  3 17:47 +-4h        36.9 S    27.5 E
SpaceCom   Jul  3 15:30     Jul  3 16:23 +-1h        59.2 S    88.7 E
SpaceCom   Jul  3 16:30     Jul  3 16:23 +-21m       59.2 S    88.7 E

SatEvo     Jun 29 19:10     Jul  4 01:22 +-1.2d
SatEvo     Jun 30 18:45     Jul  3 19:22 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul  1 22:45     Jul  4 00:59 +-18h
SatEvo     Jul  2 23:00     Jul  3 21:20 +-8h        58.7 S    67.9 E
SatEvo     Jul  3 09:40     Jul  3 18:08 +-4h        59.7 S   112.7 E
SatEvo     Jul  4 16:00     Jul  3 16:29 +-20m       58.8 S   141.6 E

Final elset (3.2 min early against yesterday's prediction):
Molniya 3-14                          20.9       696 x 81 km
1 12133U 81002A   99184.57327939  .99999999  98229-5  15450-2 0  2725
2 12133  61.8696  11.8351 0454415 284.6090  70.5116 15.59702870 50402

Note The re-entry probably occurred near perigee between Australia and
Antarctica.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/