Decay of Granat Proton rocket

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SpaceCom has yet to acknowledge that the astronomy satellite Granat
decayed from its highly eccentric orbit more than a month ago. Meantime,
the Proton rocket that launched it is (probably) making its last orbit
before it, too, plunges to decay on July 25. That is, unless it decayed
at its perigee yesterday.

Recent elsets show the rocket's perigee plunging downwards under the
influence of luni-solar gravitational perturbations...

Granat Proton r                                  200252 x 237 km
1 20354U 89096C   99194.62500000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  7999
2 20354  53.0902 286.3568 9379566  20.0153 358.5709  0.24939346  7744
Granat Proton r                                  200512 x 136 km
1 20354U 89096C   99198.65694444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  8016
2 20354  51.4031 285.5150 9389486  20.5718 359.9503  0.24911304  7742
Granat Proton r                                  200591 x 67 km
1 20354U 89096C   99202.66875000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  8056
2 20354  51.2418 285.3049 9395959  20.7652   0.0733  0.24909598  7768

The next perigee, due at about 16:05 UTC on July 25, would occur about
100 km below the Earth's surface, so the prospects of survival appear
small :)

Perhaps someone else can check the visibility prospects for the re-
entry...

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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