Decay watch: 2000 Jul 7

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jul 07 2000 - 00:34:54 PDT

  • Next message: Mark A. Hanning-Lee: "Re: Win2000 Pro and Skymap?"

    #17256 = 81- 58 E = Cosmos 1278 deb
    
    The later SpaceCom decay warnings for this are yet to appear.
    Decay estimates are:
       SpaceCom: Jul  6 11:00 +-3h        50.6 S    73.5 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  6 12:27 +-90m       41.9 S   108.7 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1278 deb E                                895 x 92 km
    1 17256U 81058E   00188.41380666  .99999999 -27872-5  23462-2 0  8378
    2 17256  62.6262 155.7237 0583920 199.3818 158.6619 15.24117909101077
    
    he final elset shows it running 65 sec late on my previous
    prediction. I show the decay occurring southbound over the SE Pacific
    on the orbit with the following SatEvo-predicted elset:
    Cosmos 1278 deb E                                657 x 85 km
    1 17256U 81058E   00188.47858421 3.65289723  85765+1  23984-2 0 98373
    2 17256  62.6142 155.4864 0423411 199.3966 158.9424 15.65838331101081
              ___________________________________________
    
    #23209 = 94- 50 G = Cosmos 2287 aux motor
    
    Just added to SpaceCom's decay warnings list. Decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 10 20:48 +-2d        62.3 S    94.0 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 10 20:32 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    C 2287 aux motor                                 1945 x 105 km
    1 23209U 94050G   00189.10774445  .17463755  12034-4  53362-3 0  4533
    2 23209  64.0373  54.5803 1242735 205.8574 147.4541 13.63049364 95527
    
    Predictions on my Decay Watch page at:
              http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    #26395 = 00- 36 B = Cosmos 2371 Proton r
    
    Decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul  7 13:58 +-8h        27.0 S    16.6 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  7 12:30 +-3h        34.1 S    13.4 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             163 x 154 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00188.99801067  .05453759  12507-4  26061-3 0   212
    2 26395  51.6180 277.4990 0006852 290.5642  69.6601 16.42716558   334
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             151 x 144 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00189.24099964  .11005474  11309+0  21797-3 0 90214
    2 26395  51.6169 276.1158 0005460 291.5975  68.3444 16.46863084   373
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             147 x 141 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00189.30165209  .13565280  17911+0  20408-3 0 90218
    2 26395  51.6165 275.7691 0004967 291.8565  68.0907 16.48341326   389
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             142 x 136 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00189.36224356  .17891769  32274+0  19407-3 0 90217
    2 26395  51.6160 275.4220 0004361 292.1158  67.8379 16.50221159   394
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             134 x 130 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00189.42275427  .26777550  72204+0  19063-3 0 90215
    2 26395  51.6153 275.0742 0003557 292.3756  67.5866 16.52849242   404
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             122 x 119 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00189.48314387  .49595792  29647+1  19217-3 0 90216
    2 26395  51.6142 274.7254 0002384 292.6362  67.3385 16.57101243   411
    
    The latest elset shows it running only 0.4 sec late on the prediction I
    posted two days ago. I see this decaying southbound just to the W of
    Capetown, S Africa.
              ___________________________________________
    
    #26396 = 00- 36 C = Cosmos 2371 Proton platform
    
    I've not had a chance to close the book on this. The final analyses are:
       SpaceCom: Jul  5 21:14 +-1h        51.7 N    47.9 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  5 20:47 +-1h         0.0     134.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton platform                      145 x 143 km
    1 26396U 00036C   00187.77560284  .52523154  12634-4  86935-3 0   116
    2 26396  51.6024 284.3771 0001141  27.6342 332.4747 16.48176078   131
    
    The final elset shows it running 15.5 sec late on my final prediction. I
    now place decay on a southbound pass near the equator over the E
    Pacific. My prediction for the final elset:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton platform                      126 x 125 km
    1 26396U 00036C   00187.83610095  .95807486  14537+2  47785-3 0 90119
    2 26396  51.6005 284.0293 0000949  27.8942 332.1109 16.55315614   148
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jul 07 2000 - 07:57:33 PDT