Decay watch: 2000 Jul 8

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jul 08 2000 - 03:13:57 PDT

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    #23209 = 94- 50 G = Cosmos 2287 aux motor
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 10 20:39 +-2d        60.5 S    44.5 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 10 20:30 +-17h
    
    Latest elset:
    C 2287 aux motor                                 1656 x 104 km
    1 23209U 94050G   00190.12036470  .23165855  11900-4  62881-3 0  4608
    2 23209  64.0051  51.7940 1069039 205.9783 148.3681 14.03982115 95663
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for predicted elsets.
              __________________________________________________
    
    #26395 = 00- 36 B = Cosmos 2371 Proton r
    
    Final decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Jul  7 12:55 +-30m       32.8 S   125.0 E
       SatEvo:   Jul  7 13:03 +-30m        0.0     153.0 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             129 x 119 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00189.48321075  .31620491  12838-4  14104-3 0   280
    2 26395  51.6161 274.7261 0007378 266.0475  93.9710 16.55926986   412
    
    The final elset has it only 4.3 sec late on my previous prediction. I
    put the decay near the following northbound equator crossing to the NE
    of New Guinea. As SpaceCom and Harro Zimmer suggest, it is possible that
    this decayed on a northbound pass across Australia that would have taken
    it over the Great Australian Desert at 12:53 UTC to just E of Cape York
    at 12:59. If it stayed up long enough, which seems unlikely, it might
    have passed south-eastwards over the Great Lakes and Philadelphia
    between 13:29 and 13:33.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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