Decay watch: 2000 Jul 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 - 10:10:40 PDT

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    Drag rates increased sharply yesterday and, after a lull, may be about
    to increase again as another geomagnetic storm begins. Look to
         http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    for further details of, and predicted elsets for, the following objects.
    
    #9530 = 74- 94 E = Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2
    
    Current decay estimates for this new imminent decayer:
       SpaceCom: Jul 18 08:23 +-2d         7.4 N    32.2 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 08:34 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               421 x 182 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00196.47278695  .03278344 -12790-4  20835-2 0  5187
    2 09530  24.3051 256.3051 0179215 155.5463 205.6720 15.90354946 41823
    
    Eclipse entry occurs while northbound near 13 deg S in the evening sky,
    with exit while southbound near 23 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #20698 = 90- 61 F = Cosmos 2085 aux motor
    
    Current predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 16 06:02 +-1d        29.4 N   121.3 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 16 20:16 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    C 2085 aux motor                                 973 x 115 km
    1 20698U 90061F   00196.44373262  .15917165  85616-5  48551-3 0  5198
    2 20698  46.5497 123.2113 0620171 109.2818 257.6200 15.07489734127854
    
    Against yesterday's prediction, this object was running 3.3 minutes
    early at the epoch of the latest elset.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26401 = 00- 37 B = Zvezda Proton-K r
    
    Current predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 18 00:13 +-2d        39.2 N   176.9 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 11:55 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                279 x 172 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00196.55107834  .01353706  11864-4  39923-3 0   182
    2 26401  51.6017   1.0774 0080940  92.7000 268.3141 16.17978196   384
    
    It was running 22 sec early against yesterday's prediction at the epoch
    of the latest elset.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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