Decay watch: 2000 Jul 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jul 16 2000 - 01:39:59 PDT

  • Next message: Kevin Fetter: "USA"

    The extremely strong geomagnetic storm may be abating a little but
    expect drag values to remain high, with objects running early against
    predictions based on pre-storm elsets.
    
    My Decay Watch page at
             http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    has detailed predictions for the following (now) four objects. I have
    collected the latest elsets for each at the end of this posting.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #9530 = 74- 94 E = Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2
    
    Current predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 17 11:56 +-20h       18.4 S    13.3 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 17 14:46 +-10h       16.8 S    64.3 W
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #20698 = 90- 61 F = Cosmos 2085 aux motor
    
    Current predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 16 09:06 +-4h        21.7 N    64.5 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 16 08:09 +-90m        7.0 N   130.7 W 
    
    My decay prediction now puts re-entry on a southbound pass over the E
    Pacific. The predicted final elset:
    C 2085 aux motor                                 273 x 102 km
    1 20698U 90061F   00198.31106795 1.46007559  53255+1  10401-2 0 95328
    2 20698  46.5315 112.9209 0130179 118.3211 242.9981 16.31965498128146
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26357 = 00- 24 B = USA 149 Titan 4 r
    
    Current predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 23 19:28 +-5d         1.7 N   171.0 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 25 04:18 +-3d
    
    This has eclipse shadow entry near northern apex (28.6 N) at ~20:00
    local time. It leaves eclipse while southbound near 18 deg S at ~05:30
    local time.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26401 = 00- 37 B = Zvezda Proton-K r
    
    Current predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul 17 17:52 +-1d         8.1 N   146.7 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 00:13 +-15h
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Latest elsets for all four objects:
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               349 x 171 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00198.22192598  .06821704 -13483-4  24919-2 0  5295
    2 09530  24.3056 242.6188 0133878 179.5586 180.4796 16.05355814 42101
    C 2085 aux motor                                 402 x 108 km
    1 20698U 90061F   00198.18780206  .48338507  89240-5  59719-3 0  5324
    2 20698  46.5377 113.6703 0222184 117.5770 244.8351 16.07086150128122
    USA 149 Titan 4 r                                389 x 177 km
    1 26357U 00024B   00198.14004601  .01744798 -68342-5  89186-3 0  1034
    2 26357  28.6200 160.1854 0158652 152.3450 208.5699 15.96942576 10717
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                247 x 163 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00197.93084068  .03924994  12021-4  71856-3 0   269
    2 26401  51.6051 353.4801 0063754  98.3269  41.8974 16.25416673   609
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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