Decay watch: 2000 Jul 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jul 18 2000 - 12:54:09 PDT

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    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more on these
    decayers.
    
    =====================================================================
    #9530 = 74- 94 E = Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2
    
    Final decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 18 09:03 +-5h         0.0 S   153.6 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 05:20 +-90m        0.0      30.0 E
    
    The final elset...
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               253 x 157 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00199.64316442  .09578015 -14294-4  13833-2 0  5413
    2 09530  24.2947 231.1896 0073332 200.1417 159.6229 16.25453914 42336
    ... shows this to be 2 sec late against yesterday's prediction. I show
    this decaying near a southbound equator crossing over central Africa. My
    predicted elset for the final complete orbit is:
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               170 x 130 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00200.13182238  .58721884  27522+1  77731-3 0 95456
    2 09530  24.2979 227.1505 0030609 206.2389 153.6056 16.46107697 42416
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #24878 = 97- 35 C = GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 21 22:23 +-3d        36.8 S   100.5 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 23 13:50 +-1.3d
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26357 = 00- 24 B = USA 149 Titan 4 r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 23 19:28 +-5d         1.7 N   171.0 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 28 16:45 +-3d (slipping later)
    
    Latest elset:
    USA 149 Titan 4 r                                365 x 174 km
    1 26357U 00024B   00200.51046886  .01042823 -70106-5  43981-3 0  1146
    2 26357  28.6185 142.2091 0143757 181.9193 178.0843 16.01941573 11092
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26401 = 00- 37 B = Zvezda Proton-K r
    
    Final decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 17 16:57 +-1h        19.9 N    42.5 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 17 17:44 +-1h         0.0     141.4 E
    
    The final elset...
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                148 x 125 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00199.61827661  .18039260  12620-4  13905-3 0   333
    2 26401  51.6046 344.0018 0017908 107.7326 252.5688 16.51207294   887
    ... has this running 9 sec late against my previous prediction. I put
    the decay near the northbound equator crossing near New Guinea at the
    epoch of this predicted elset:
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                110 x 101 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00199.73892213 8.82167215  50000+2  16915-2 0 90335
    2 26401  51.6037 343.3034 0006418 108.2548 251.8150 16.62915162   904
    If so, it should have passed NE over Western Australia from the 
    vicinity of Perth at 17:34.
    =====================================================================
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jul 18 2000 - 12:56:07 PDT