Soyuz TMA-17M launch orbit estimations

From: Jon . via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2015 19:02:07 +0200
Hi all;

A Soyuz-FG rocket is scheduled to launch the Soyuz TMA-17M spacecraft the
2015/7/22 at 21:02:45 UTC.

They will try the 6 hours fast renzezvous to the ISS.

This first orbit is valid from 21:10:45 UTC, 8 minutes after liftoff till
21:45:34 UTC:

SOYUZ-TMA 17M #0                                         198 X 214 km
1 70000U 15500A   15203.88246528 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    04
2 70000  51.6456 265.2495 0011851  54.4242  24.5169 16.25069103    06

At 21:45:34, the first maneuver should be made, giving:

SOYUZ-TMA 17M #1                                         213 X 259 km
1 70001U 15501A   15203.90730324 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    01
2 70001  51.6456 265.1124 0034735 215.8636   8.4622 16.13853718    06

At 22:26:50, the second maneuver should be made, giving:

SOYUZ-TMA 17M #2                                         250 X 260 km
1 70002U 15502A   15203.93530093 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    07
2 70002  51.6457 264.9601 0008034 248.6600 138.4421 16.07029298    05

At ~23:06 the third maneuver should be made. Sadly the TsUP is not giving
Dv data for the two last maneuvers, so I've made two more TLEs that fits
more or less with the timing:

SOYUZ-TMA 17M #3                                         253 X 379 km
1 70003U 15503A   15203.96285880 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    03
2 70003  51.6461 264.8117 0094405 188.5457 358.0648 15.85210022    04

Assuming a third maneuver at this time, the fourth maneuver it have to be
made the 23/7/2015 at ~01:21:55 UTC:

SOYUZ-TMA 17M #4                                         356 X 380 km
1 70004U 15504A   15204.05688657 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    05
2 70004  51.6464 264.3206 0018158 212.2466 151.3221 15.66854861    037


Docking is aimed the 23/7/2015 at 02:46 +- 3 mins, so once docked we have:

SOYUZ-TMA 17M #5 (docked)                                401 X 402 km
1 70005U 15509A   15204.11527778 0.00007574  00000-0  10966-3 0    03
2 70005  51.6453 264.6163 0001451 289.3365  45.1770 15.55228913    08


Data source: http://www.mcc.rsa.ru/sojuztma_17m/start.htm


As allways TLE's epoch are on the maneuver or orbit insertion time.

NOTE: The spacecraft will make a nice pass over all Europe in the third
orbit. It will be following the ISS by about 40 seconds more or less and
the pass will start the 23/7/2015 at ~01:38 UTC, when the spacecraft exits
shadow.
Also the second orbit's pass will be interesting for some Asian observers.
This pass will start the 2015/7/23 at 00:05 UTC.

You can generate predictions on Calsky.com, clicking on the link on the
blue box on the main page:

http://calsky.com/

or directly:

www.calsky.com/csephem.cgi?&object=Satellite&number=70000

Orbital data revision on calsky is on course, so be sure you check it again
tomorrow before the pass!

Or maybe you will can see a live simulation plus live streaming on
satflare.com (awaiting link, will post it if Simone kindly makes the
simulation).


Be good!


Jon.

-- 
Jon, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque Country.
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Received on Tue Jul 21 2015 - 12:03:44 UTC

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