Leo Barhorst has observed the NROL-129 suspect in one of the two search orbits I posted on July 28. His observations are here: http://satobs.org/seesat/Jul-2020/0154.html 79395 20 711A 0796 E 20200729222735155 17 25 0126631+354579 37 S 79395 20 711A 0796 E 20200729222743161 17 25 0131587+342093 37 S 79395 20 711A 0796 E 20200729222754157 17 25 0137562+323613 37 S As Leo reported, the above are close to the prediction given by the following search TLE that fits Russell's observations of July 26: 1 79395U 79395A 20208.97960996 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 06 2 79395 54.0811 237.7091 0000001 0.0000 73.5075 14.88740000 03 The following table compares the key elements of the search TLE and those derived by fitting a circular orbit to the first and last of Leo's three points: Search Leo's Obs Inc, deg 54.08 54.02 RAAN, deg 224.7 225.1 n0, rev/d 14.8788 14.8874 It seems highly likely that Leo and Russell observed the same object. If it was the NROL-129 Minotaur 4th stage, then the predicted magnitude at the time of Leo's observations was 6.7 +/-1.2, with 95% confidence. Here is an updated search TLE, fit to Leo's and Russell's observations: NROL-129 search 601 X 603 km 1 79395U 79395A 20211.91999032 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 07 2 79395 54.0715 225.0568 0001000 359.9586 0.1408 14.88740043 03 Arc 20200726.98-0729.94 WRMS resid 0.012 totl 0.004 xtrk I am being a bit conservative by not assigning an ID from the NROL-129 launch just yet. However, I suggest that any new observations of an object in the above orbit be reported as 2020-046E / 45877 (the Minotaur 4th stage). We would re-consider that ID depending on what we learn about the payloads, should they be found. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Thu Jul 30 2020 - 11:24:58 UTC
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