Acceleration Report(??): 90- 34 B(20571), 94- 29 B(23106)

Kurt Jonckheere (kjonckheere@unicall.be)
Wed, 26 Jun 1996 21:20:22 +0200

Some strange preliminary results of my MMjump-analysis at the bottom
of this mail.

----
90- 34 B is a Delta second stage  that has a jump in semi-major axis
of about 100 metres last week.  In the last years, no Delta second stage
had any flash behaviour.

----
About tree weeks ago, something strange happened with 94- 29 B = 23106
= Fourth stage of a Pegasus launch.
It already had a jump in Semi major axis of about 3 kilometres (a new
record !) in Jan 1995.
For months, the orbital elements were rather stable but suddenly had
a incredible high mmdot.  

For more than three weeks, I've been waiting for an update of the elements
from OIG.   What happened?  Was this another misinterpretation of
radar-data??

1 23106U 94029B   96155.78785959  .00403953  00000-0  70030-1 0  1964
                                   ********
2 23106  81.9685 197.1898 0165843 247.9048 111.4671 14.57466982108647
                                                       ****
1 23106U 94029B   96155.65049147 +.00000363 +00000-0 +63824-4 0 02035
2 23106 081.9685 197.3222 0165844 248.3329 110.0315 14.56782856108626
1 23106U 94029B   96155.58180463 +.00000184 +00000-0 +30581-4 0 01982
2 23106 081.9721 197.3923 0165819 248.3430 110.0016 14.56780936108603
1 23106U 94029B   96155.10100506 +.00000158 +00000-0 +25815-4 0 01985
2 23106 081.9749 197.8565 0165742 249.9583 108.3711 14.56780581108542
1 23106U 94029B   96154.13940394 +.00000168 +00000-0 +27620-4 0 02162
2 23106 081.9750 198.7834 0165738 252.9996 105.2975 14.56780360108408

In May 1996, it was seen by Leo Barhorst who noted it slowly varying
with a period of more then 90 seconds.

Does somebody has any additional information about this Pegasus fourth 
stage ?

----
Last weeks show no jumps in mean motion from objects of the famous 
acceleration classes, 
do they accelerate only during certain times of the year ??

I check my very preliminary results of my MMjump analysis :
(MMjump means a sudden change in Mean Motion and accordingly in Semi
Major Axis)
Till now, I've checked a total of 33 sudden changes in Semi Major Axis, mostly
from Russian rockets.   These 33 all came out suddenly during the last months,
with checking MMjumps and PPAS, so they seem to be chosen *randomly*.

The number of rockets with a MMjump in a certain month are given below :
Month : quantity
1 : 3
2 : 3 
3 : 1
4 : 2
5 : 0
6 : 2
7 : 2
8 : 0
9 : 3
10: 5
11: 6
12: 6

Although I still have to go deeper into it, the table clearly shows that 
(if I haven't overlooked any other things) there is much more change 
for a rocket to accelerate during the last three months of the year :
50 percent of the acc. happen during Oct, Nov or Dec ; 
the other 50 percent during the first nine months of the year.

For the moment I have no idea what may be the cause of this grouping, but
I still have to look at some relations between orbital data.
Any suggestions ?

More next months ! 

------------------
Nice to see that Sue is taken up with the FAQ, great job !

Happy observing,

Kurt J

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        Kurt Jonckheere (kjonckheere@unicall.be)   51.2 N  2.9 E 
    observations collector for the Belgian Working Group Satellites: 
Send your observations of flashing satellites, preferrably in the correct
     PPAS format to obs@physics.oxford.ac.uk or obs@physics.ox.ac.uk
              I Dreamed I Dream      --       Sonic Youth
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